Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price123.90 USD
Fair value123.64
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-08Read Markdown134.25-7.7% to today ✓
2026-08-07Read Markup138.82-10.7% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution121.44+2.0% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Owens Corning holds its Markdown at $123.90. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 143 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 143 days
Price at the screen
$123.90
Valuation
N/A trailing · 10.31 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.32
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
43.95%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 44.0% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
9.88%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 9.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 0.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 15 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +43% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Housing slowdown turns cheap into a trap
Picture a builder who stocks up on shingles right as mortgage rates spike and new homes stop selling. Owens Corning sits in that exact spot, selling roofing, insulation and doors into a market that has already turned. Revenue is falling ten percent, margins sit at minus five percent and return on equity is negative nine, yet the shares still trade at a forward multiple of twelve times.
We pass because this is the classic cyclical value trap. The low multiple looks tempting until you notice the weak moat and the fact that our fair value sits eighteen percent below the current price. Analyst targets at one hundred sixty eight dollars ignore the simple reality that peak earnings in building products rarely last.
The ethical screen is clear, yet the numbers show a business that shrinks when construction slows and offers little protection when it does. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
OC trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-08Markdown · changed$134.25-3.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $146.
2026-08-07Markup · changed$138.82+14.3%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 14.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $146.
2026-07-18Distribution$121.44+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (14 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $146.
2026-07-03Distribution$121.44+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$121.44Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
