Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-11
Options put/call open interest 0.61, read 2026-11-07
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price82.22 USD
Fair value59.18
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-26Read Markup72.87+12.8% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 7% rise in 2 weeks
2026-10-11Read Accumulation68.36+20.3% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Distribution68.36+20.3% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 7% slide in 4 weeks
2026-09-04Read Markdown73.29+12.2% to today Markup gives way to Markdown after a 10% slide in 4 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Masco holds its Markup at $82.22. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 46 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 46 days
Price at the screen
$82.22
Valuation
18.58 trailing · 17.54 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.29
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
61.82%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 61.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
32.21%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 32.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.11%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Masco's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 62% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades above our $59.18 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 2.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 38.9% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $59.18, with a range of $59.18 to $68.06, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Home taps and debt loads rarely mix well
Picture a kitchen tap that drips every time interest rates climb. Masco sells those taps and shower fittings across North America and Europe, yet the numbers show a business priced well above what its cash flows can support. At 78.65 against our fair value of 59.91 the shares already embed optimistic assumptions, and the ethical screen flags a debt ratio that simply fails our test.
Revenue is growing at a modest 6 percent with an 11 percent profit margin and a moderate moat, yet the 16.7 times forward earnings multiple sits on top of a cyclical building-products business. High ROE looks impressive until you remember these are peak-cycle earnings that rarely last. Seventeen analysts may still say buy with an 80 target, but that consensus ignores how quickly margins compress when housing turns.
The real danger is the classic value trap: a low multiple on earnings that are about to fall. Add the debt burden and the ethical fail, and there is no margin of safety left. We pass.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MAS trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Markup$82.18+12.8%Entry 17
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 12.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $83.
2026-10-28Markup$72.87+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $79. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markup$72.87+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $79. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markup · changed$72.87+0.0%Entry 14
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $79. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Accumulation$72.87+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $79. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Accumulation$72.87+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $79. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Accumulation$72.87+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $79. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Accumulation$72.87+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $79. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Accumulation$72.87+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $79. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Accumulation$72.87+6.6%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 6.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $79.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
