Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-08-03
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price68.23 USD
Fair value59.44
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-04Read Markdown73.29-6.9% to today ✓
2026-08-05Read Markup81.61-16.4% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution69.41-1.7% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Masco holds its Markdown at $68.23. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 23 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-17
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 23 days
Price at the screen
$68.23
Valuation
15.99 trailing · 14.89 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.29
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
61.82%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 61.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
32.21%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 32.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $59.44 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-17 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 12.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 18 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +17% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-17 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Home taps and debt loads rarely mix well
Picture a kitchen tap that drips every time interest rates climb. Masco sells those taps and shower fittings across North America and Europe, yet the numbers show a business priced well above what its cash flows can support. At 78.65 against our fair value of 59.91 the shares already embed optimistic assumptions, and the ethical screen flags a debt ratio that simply fails our test.
Revenue is growing at a modest 6 percent with an 11 percent profit margin and a moderate moat, yet the 16.7 times forward earnings multiple sits on top of a cyclical building-products business. High ROE looks impressive until you remember these are peak-cycle earnings that rarely last. Seventeen analysts may still say buy with an 80 target, but that consensus ignores how quickly margins compress when housing turns.
The real danger is the classic value trap: a low multiple on earnings that are about to fall. Add the debt burden and the ethical fail, and there is no margin of safety left. We pass.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MAS trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-04Markdown · changed$73.29-10.2%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 10.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $81.
2026-08-05Markup · changed$81.61+17.6%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 17.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $81.
2026-07-18Distribution$69.41+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 10%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (18 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $81.
2026-07-03Distribution$69.41+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$69.41Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
