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The Screen · Industrials · Building Products & Equipment
Lennox International
LII · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $13.0B · 5,400 employees
Lennox International Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and markets products for the heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and refrigeration markets in the United States, Canada, and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
359.08 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-17 · not a live quote Last reviewed 5 days ago
Screened 2026-09-17 · the tape above runs as of 07:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 359.08 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 358.19, over the last year.
Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-08-10
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price359.08 USD
Fair value358.19
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-04Read Markdown402.87-10.9% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Distribution508.43-29.4% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Lennox International holds its Markdown at $359.08. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-17
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$359.08
Valuation
16.71 trailing · 14.34 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.18
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
43.38%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 43.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.01%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
15.02%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 15.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.11%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $358.19 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 3.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-17 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 0.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 13 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +38% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-17 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Home comfort leader priced beyond its reach
When a heatwave strikes or winter bites, Lennox equipment keeps homes liveable across North America. Yet the shares sit 27 percent above our fair value at a forward multiple of 20 times earnings, and the business fails our ethical screen on its debt ratio. We pass.
Revenue growth of 6 percent and 15 percent profit margins support a 77 percent ROE, but the moderate moat and premium valuation leave no cushion. In cyclical building products, strong returns often signal peak conditions rather than a bargain, and nothing in the numbers suggests the cycle has been tamed.
Analysts still cluster around a higher target, yet that optimism ignores both the debt flag and the trap that appears when multiples stay elevated while demand normalises. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
LII trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-04Markdown · changed$402.87-26.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 26.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (16 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $567.
2026-08-04Distribution$544.11+7.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 7.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (16 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $567.
2026-07-18Distribution$508.43+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (16 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $567.
2026-07-03Distribution$508.43+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$508.43Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
