Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical screen not yet scored
Price2.78 USD
Fair value3.75
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-04Read Markdown3.17-12.3% to today ✓
2026-08-04Read Distribution2.95-5.8% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup4.55-38.9% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Lithium Americas Corp. holds its Markdown at $2.78. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 133 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-16
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 133 days
Price at the screen
$2.78
Valuation
N/A trailing · -19.75 forward price to earnings
Values screen
Not scored· score 70.0
Beta
3.47
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
20.64%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 20.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
22.19%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 22.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-16 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 35.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 9 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +62% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-16 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Nevada Lithium Hopes Hit Data Shortfall
Picture a huge Nevada lithium deposit that still needs years of building before it ships a single tonne. Lithium Americas sits at that exact stage, with no profits yet and an opportunity rating of none. We pass because the ethical screen returns insufficient data and the business sits in a notoriously cyclical sector where early numbers rarely tell the full story.
Forward earnings sit at a negative 16 times while profit margins and return on equity both read zero and minus five percent. The quoted price of 2.95 dollars sits below our fair value of 3.98 dollars, yet the gap does not create an opening once cyclical swings and missing ratio data are factored in. Nine analysts hold a median target of five dollars, but that consensus does not shift our stance.
The real danger lies in mistaking a low multiple for value inside a commodity cycle that can turn sharply. Peak earnings often arrive just before the next downturn, leaving investors holding assets that never repeat the prior peak. Ethical gaps around basic financial ratios add another layer that cannot be ignored. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
LAC trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-04Markdown · changed$3.17+7.5%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 7.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $6.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 35.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $6.
2026-07-18Markup$4.55+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 51%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $6.
2026-07-03Markup$4.55+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$4.55Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
