Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price23.57 USD
Fair value20.85
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown23.57+0.0% to today
2026-08-25Read Distribution26.63-11.5% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Accumulation31.46-25.1% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Compass Minerals International, Inc. holds its Markdown at $23.57. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 9 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 9 days
Price at the screen
$23.57
Valuation
56.12 trailing · 18.61 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.23
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
55.79%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 55.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
15.75%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 15.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.10%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Compass Minerals International,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 56% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 11.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +32% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Salt demand swings with every winter storm
Every time a city truck spreads de-icer on icy roads or a farmer spreads potash on depleted fields, Compass Minerals collects the revenue. Yet the business is locked into two highly seasonal end markets whose volumes rise and fall with the weather and crop prices. At the current price the shares sit well above our fair value, and the thin 1 percent profit margin plus 3 percent return on equity give little room for error.
Forward earnings are valued at nearly 25 times while revenue is already declining 8 percent. In a cyclical industry that pattern is the classic warning sign: peak-cycle margins have not yet turned down, so the multiple looks merely average rather than cheap. The ethical screen is passed, but that alone does not create an investment case when the underlying economics remain so weak.
Currency moves, weather variability and commodity price swings can erase a year of earnings in a single quarter. With no visible moat and only modest analyst coverage, the risk of permanent capital loss stays material. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CMP trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$23.57-11.5%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 11.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 49% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $31.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 9.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 49% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $31.
2026-07-25Accumulation$29.46-6.4%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 6.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 49% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $31.
2026-07-18Accumulation$31.46+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 49% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 48%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $31.
2026-07-03Accumulation$31.46+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$31.46Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
