Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price9.00 USD
Fair value12.15
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-12Read Distribution10.26-12.3% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markdown15.98-43.7% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Sigma Lithium Corporation holds its Distribution at $9.00. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 7 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-16
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 7 days
Price at the screen
$9.00
Valuation
N/A trailing · 5.22 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.60
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
48.79%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 48.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
2.59%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 2.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
2.02%
Below 5%
Only 2.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-16 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 35.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 2 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +119% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-16 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Lithium miner valuation ignores the cycle swings
Picture an EV battery boom that suddenly cools. Orders slow, prices drop and a Brazilian lithium developer with no profits yet feels the squeeze hard. Sigma Lithium shows a forward multiple of just 6.1 times, yet revenue is already falling 11 percent and margins sit at minus 42 percent, so the cheap reading is mostly an illusion created by peak-cycle thinking.
We pass because this is a classic cyclical value trap. The low multiple and 35 percent gap to our fair value number look tempting on a screen, yet negative 49 percent ROE and an unknown moat tell us earnings are fragile and tied to commodity swings rather than durable demand. Two analysts see a much higher target, but history shows these forecasts often collapse when battery makers cut purchases.
Risk sits in the commodity price and funding exposure that can wipe out thin balance sheets quickly. Ethical screen clears, yet the numbers still flag a business that needs sustained high lithium prices to justify any ownership. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SGML trades on Nasdaq (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-12Distribution$12.61+22.9%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 22.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 39% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 129%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $21.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 35.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 39% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 129%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-07-18Markdown$15.98+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 39% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 129%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 33%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $21.
2026-07-03Markdown$15.98+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$15.98Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
