Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.79, read 2026-11-04
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price186.42 USD
Fair value223.11
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-05Read Markup190.72-2.3% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 13% rise in 5 weeks
2026-10-02Read Distribution168.88+10.4% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 6% slide in 5 weeks
2026-08-30Read Markdown179.25+4.0% to today Markup gives way to Markdown
2026-07-30Read Markup178.48+4.4% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup with results news in the headlines
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
GATX Corporation holds its Markup at $186.42. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$186.42
Valuation
17.98 trailing · 16.82 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.20
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
70.49%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 70.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
4.73%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 4.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
GATX's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 70% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today GATX does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 15% discount to our $223.11 fair value, 36.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 16.4% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $223.11, with a range of $194.40 to $283.40, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Rail leases keep freight flowing worldwide
Every time grain or chemicals move by rail across North America or Europe, someone has to own and maintain the specialised wagons. GATX supplies those assets under long leases, a model that has delivered 38% revenue growth and an 18% profit margin while returning 11% on equity at a forward multiple of 16 times.
The shares trade at 178 dollars against our 221 dollar fair value, a 24% margin of safety that lines up with the 220 dollar analyst median. Ethical screens clear and the business shows no obvious red flags, which explains the strong-buy consensus from the four covering firms.
Yet rail volumes remain tied to industrial cycles, and an unknown competitive moat leaves room for pressure if freight demand softens or customers shift to trucks. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GATX trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Markup · changed$190.72+15.3%Entry 16
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 15.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $218.
2026-10-29Distribution$165.47+2.4%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $218. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Distribution$161.67+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $218. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Distribution$161.67+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $218. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Distribution$161.67+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $218. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Distribution$161.67+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $218. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Distribution$161.67+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $218. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Distribution$161.67+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $218. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Distribution$161.67-3.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $218. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-17Distribution$166.72-1.3%Entry 7
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $218.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
