Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price178.53 USD
Fair value222.96
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-30Read Markdown179.25-0.4% to today ✓
2026-07-30Read Markup178.48+0.0% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Distribution174.57+2.3% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
GATX Corporation holds its Accumulation at $178.53. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 14 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 14 days
Price at the screen
$178.53
Valuation
17.68 trailing · 15.84 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.18
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
70.49%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 70.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
4.73%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 4.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 24.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +24% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Rail leases keep freight flowing worldwide
Every time grain or chemicals move by rail across North America or Europe, someone has to own and maintain the specialised wagons. GATX supplies those assets under long leases, a model that has delivered 38% revenue growth and an 18% profit margin while returning 11% on equity at a forward multiple of 16 times.
The shares trade at 178 dollars against our 221 dollar fair value, a 24% margin of safety that lines up with the 220 dollar analyst median. Ethical screens clear and the business shows no obvious red flags, which explains the strong-buy consensus from the four covering firms.
Yet rail volumes remain tied to industrial cycles, and an unknown competitive moat leaves room for pressure if freight demand softens or customers shift to trucks. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GATX trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-30Markdown · changed$179.25+0.4%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $218.
2026-07-30Markup · changed$178.48+2.2%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $218.
2026-07-18Distribution$174.57+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (4 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $218.
2026-07-03Distribution$174.57+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$174.57Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
