NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,416+0.37%BTC$81,118+6.17%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 17:00 UTC
The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Chagee Holdings Limited
CHA · Nasdaq · USD · Market cap $2.3B · 3,812 employees
Chagee Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, owns, operates, and franchises teahouses under the CHAGEE brand in the People's Republic of China, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, an…
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
12.19 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-16
Screened 2026-09-16 · the tape above runs as of 17:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Chagee Holdings Limited holds its Markup at $12.19. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 54 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-16
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 54 days
Price at the screen
$12.19
Valuation
11.95 trailing · 7.66 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Accounts receivable
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
11.12%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 11.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
3.13%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 3.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
67.64%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 67.6% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
1.14%
Below 5%
Only 1.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-16 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 59.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 11 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +28% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-16 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
China Tea Chain Trades At Low Multiple
Picture a busy Shanghai street where office workers grab a quick cup of freshly brewed tea before heading back to their desks. Chagee has built a network of teahouses across China and several Asian markets that serves exactly that habit. Yet revenue is advancing only four percent a year while the shares change hands at 6.7 times forward earnings.
We pass because the numbers do not add up to a compelling case. Profit margins sit at seven percent, return on equity at fifteen percent, and the moat remains unknown. Even with an ethical screen that clears and a consensus buy rating from analysts, the low multiple on a cyclical consumer business flags peak earnings rather than a bargain.
Currency swings, shifting tastes in China, and competition from bigger coffee and bubble-tea players all sit in the path. A sixty-six percent gap to the analyst median target does not remove those structural questions.
Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to China and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CHA trades on Nasdaq (the company is based in China). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-25Markdown · changed$10.01-11.4%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 11.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $16.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $16.
2026-07-18Markdown$12.16+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 59%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $16.
2026-07-03Markdown$12.16+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$12.16Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.