Screened 2026-09-17 · the tape above runs as of 21:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. holds its Distribution at $43.76. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 25 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-17
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 25 days
Price at the screen
$43.76
Valuation
38.05 trailing · 39.82 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.18
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
54.56%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 54.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
3.46%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 3.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-17 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 38.4% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +1% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-17 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cracker Barrel priced for a feast it cannot serve
Picture a roadside diner still serving the same biscuits while fewer cars pull in. Cracker Barrel trades at $53.61 against our fair value of $26.80, a 50 percent premium that leaves little room for the reality of falling sales and thin margins. We pass because the numbers simply do not add up.
Forward earnings sit at 80 times while revenue shrinks 3 percent and the profit margin rests at just 1 percent. Return on equity of 6 percent offers scant evidence of competitive strength, and the business carries no clear moat. The ethical screen clears, yet the valuation leaves no margin for the operational pressures already visible in the results.
High multiples on a cyclical restaurant chain often signal peak earnings rather than a bargain. Currency swings and consumer spending shifts could widen the gap further. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CBRL trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-16Markdown$54.20+0.0%Entry 13
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $31. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-15Markdown$54.20+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $31. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-14Markdown$54.20+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $31. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-13Markdown$54.20+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $31. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-12Markdown$54.20+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $31. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-11Markdown$54.20+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $31. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-10Markdown$54.20+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $31. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-09Markdown · changed$54.20-7.2%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 7.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $31. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 8.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $31.
2026-07-24Markup$53.61+14.8%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 14.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 15%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (8 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $31.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
