Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price10.28 USD
Fair value11.50
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-23Read Markup11.38-9.7% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution11.87-13.4% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Brightstar Lottery PLC holds its Distribution at $10.28. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 31 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 31 days
Price at the screen
$10.28
Valuation
10.82 trailing · 14.24 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.00
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: gambling
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: gambling
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 11.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +61% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Lottery Machines Trade Below Value But Ethics Say No
Every week millions feed coins into lottery terminals hoping for a life changing win, and Brightstar Lottery PLC builds and runs the hardware that makes those bets possible across the US and Europe. The shares sit at $10.74 against a calculated fair value of $16.69, offering a wide margin on paper, while the forward multiple of 13.4 times earnings looks modest next to single digit revenue growth and a 6 percent profit margin. Yet the ethical screen rejects the name outright because the core activity is gambling.
The business earns a 9 percent return on equity with no clear moat and sits in a sector that rises and falls with discretionary spending. Eight analysts rate the shares a buy with a median target near $16, but those forecasts ignore the sector exclusion that defines our approach. Low growth and thin returns already limit the appeal even before the ethical filter is applied.
This is exactly what the screen is for. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; its business and earnings are exposed to United Kingdom and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BRSL trades on the NYSE (the company is based in United Kingdom). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-23Markup · changed$11.38+6.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $17.
2026-07-23Distribution$10.74-9.5%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 9.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $17.
2026-07-18Distribution$11.87+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 15%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $17.
2026-07-03Distribution$11.87+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$11.87Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.