Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price12.68 USD
Fair value19.48
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-12Read Accumulation13.64-7.0% to today
2026-08-12Read Distribution12.99-2.4% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Accumulation13.48-5.9% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Super Group (SGHC) Limited holds its Markdown at $12.68. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 7 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 7 days
Price at the screen
$12.68
Valuation
17.61 trailing · 14.34 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.08
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: gambling
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: gambling
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 53.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +54% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Betting apps clear numbers but fail ethics
Every weekend millions place small wagers on phones and the cash moves through online betting platforms that sit outside normal financial rails. Super Group runs two such brands and shows revenue rising 18 percent, an 11 percent profit margin and 36 percent return on equity, all at a forward multiple of 16.5 times with analysts pointing to further upside.
We pass without hesitation. The business clears conventional value screens yet trips the ethical test on gambling, which removes it from consideration regardless of the 31 percent gap between price and modelled worth.
High returns often mask the sector's regulatory and social risks that can shift quickly with new rules or public backlash. The opportunity rating stays at none for this reason.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Guernsey and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SGHC trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Guernsey). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $18.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-07-18Accumulation$13.48+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 49%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (8 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-07-03Accumulation$13.48+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$13.48Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
