Churchill Downs Incorporated operates live and historical racing entertainment venues, online wagering businesses, and regional casino gaming properties in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
81.92 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-21 · not a live quote
Screened 2026-09-21 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 81.92 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 145.45, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price81.92 USD
Fair value145.45
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-25Read Markup90.71-9.7% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution86.94-5.8% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Churchill Downs Incorporated holds its Distribution at $81.92. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 34 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 34 days
Price at the screen
$81.92
Valuation
13.91 trailing · 11.06 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.67
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: gambling
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: gambling
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 77.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +56% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
The racetrack draws crowds but fails the test
Picture the roar at Churchill Downs on derby day, with bets flowing through online platforms and casino floors. The business posts a 35% return on equity and trades at 11.5 times forward earnings, yet none of that matters once the ethical screen flags the entire gambling sector. We pass without hesitation.
Revenue edges up just 3% while profit margins sit at 13%, numbers that look steady on paper. The ethical failure overrides any valuation gap or analyst targets, exactly as the screen is designed to do. No amount of cash generation changes the sector exclusion.
Cyclical exposure to discretionary spending adds real downside when consumer wallets tighten, and the unknown moat leaves little protection if regulation tightens further. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CHDN trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-25Markup · changed$90.71+8.1%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $137.
2026-07-24Distribution$83.95-3.4%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $137.
2026-07-18Distribution$86.94+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 12%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (12 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $137.
2026-07-03Distribution$86.94+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$86.94Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
