Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.55, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price19.92 USD
Fair value21.52
Value readFairas of 7 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Accumulation15.92+25.1% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation with results news in the headlines
2026-10-02Read Markup15.92+25.1% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since July
2026-08-29Read Distribution16.35+21.8% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution
2026-08-26Read Markdown16.35+21.8% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. holds its Markup at $19.92. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 36 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-07
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 36 days
Price at the screen
$19.92
Valuation
10.22 trailing · 10.33 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
1.34
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
59.22%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 59.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
8.12%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 8.1% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.15%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
American Eagle Outfitters,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 59% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 7 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 7% discount to our $21.52 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 7.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-07 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 7.4% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $21.52, with a range of $19.16 to $31.94, dated to the 2026-11-07 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Fast fashion looks cheap until debt piles up
Walk into any mall and the racks at American Eagle still draw crowds hunting for a deal. The numbers show revenue up 10 percent with a forward P/E of 8.8 times and an 18 percent ROE, yet the opportunity rating sits at none because the ethical screen fails outright on the debt ratio. We pass for that reason alone.
The moderate moat and modest 5 percent profit margin suggest a workable but unexceptional business in a cyclical sector. Ten analysts hold a median target only slightly above the current price, which lines up with a market that sees limited upside rather than a mispriced gem.
Low multiples on consumer cyclicals often mask peak earnings rather than signal bargains, and the debt issue simply rules out any further look. The combination leaves nothing compelling on either the numbers or the ethics screen.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AEO trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01Accumulation$19.61+8.6%Entry 23
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 8.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 77%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $23. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-25Accumulation$18.05+0.0%Entry 22
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 77%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $23. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-18Accumulation$18.05+13.4%Entry 21
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 13.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 77%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $23. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 77%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $23. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-02Markup · changed$15.92-8.5%Entry 19
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 8.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 77%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $23.
2026-09-09Distribution$17.39+0.0%Entry 18
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 77%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $23. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-08Distribution$17.39+0.0%Entry 17
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 77%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $23. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-06Distribution$17.39+0.0%Entry 16
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 77%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $23. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-05Distribution$17.39+6.4%Entry 15
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 6.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 77%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $23. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-02Distribution$16.35+0.0%Entry 14
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 77%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (9 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $23. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.