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The Screen · Industrials · Airlines
United Airlines Holdings
UAL · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $33.9B · 115,600 employees
United Airlines Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides air transportation services in the United States, Canada, Atlantic, the Pacific, and Latin America.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
112.74 USD
Price as of 6 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-06 · the tape above runs as of 04:01 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price112.74 USD at the 6 Nov 2026 close
Our value readFair vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.27, read 2026-11-07
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price112.74 USD
Fair value123.08
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readFairas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-15Read Markdown107.46+4.9% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since September
2026-10-02Read Accumulation111.51+1.1% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-09-15Read Markdown107.12+5.2% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 19% slide in 4 weeks
2026-08-15Read Accumulation132.76-15.1% to today Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 26% rise in 6 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
United Airlines Holdings holds its Markup at $112.74. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$112.74
Valuation
9.55 trailing · 8.71 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.30
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
40.60%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 40.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
1.74%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.7% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
10.90%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 10.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.03%
Below 5%
Only 1.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
United Airlines's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 41% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when UAL's ethical verdict changes
Today UAL does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Fair vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly an 8% discount to our $123.08 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 17.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 8.4% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $123.08, with a range of $88.20 to $141.54, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Airlines look cheap until the cycle turns
Picture a packed plane one quarter and empty seats the next when fuel costs jump or travel slows. United Airlines sits in that exact trap, and we pass on the name. The ethical screen flags its debt ratio straight away, which alone rules it out before the numbers even enter the frame.
Forward earnings sit at just 7.5 times, revenue is rising 16 percent, and return on equity reaches 23 percent, yet the business carries a narrow moat and only 6 percent profit margins. In airlines those figures often mark peak-cycle earnings rather than a bargain, and the low multiple simply reflects how fast the good times can end.
Twenty-three analysts call it a strong buy with a 160 dollar median target, but none of that offsets the debt burden or the industry's built-in swings. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
UAL trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03Markdown$104.24+2.9%Entry 16
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 2.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $150.
2026-10-27Markdown$101.31+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $150.
2026-10-20Markdown$101.31+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $152. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-19Markdown$101.31+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $153. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Markdown$101.31+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $153. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-17Markdown$101.31+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $153. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16Markdown$101.31-5.7%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 5.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $153. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-15Markdown · changed$107.46+0.0%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $153. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-14Accumulation$107.46+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $153. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-13Accumulation$107.46-3.6%Entry 7
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 3.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 36%. The street (23 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $153. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
