NAS10029,447+1.73%S&P7,638+1.14%GOLD$4,406+0.14%BTC$77,436VIX15.44−12.82%live tape · as of 09:00 UTC
The Screen · Consumer Cyclical
Trip.com Group Limited
TCOM · Nasdaq · USD · Market cap $24.7B
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
39.19 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 09:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Trip.com Group Limited holds its Markdown at $39.19. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 70 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 70 days
Price at the screen
$39.19
Valuation
5.81 trailing · 9.28 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
-0.05
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
108.66%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 108.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
246.96%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 247.0% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 85.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 29 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +56% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Travel rebound masks a debt burden
Picture a packed flight out of Shanghai or a family hotel booking in Bangkok. Trip.com sits at the centre of that rebound, posting 17 percent revenue growth, 49 percent profit margins and a 20 percent return on equity. The forward multiple sits at just 9.9 times and the moat looks solid, yet the stock fails our ethical screen on its debt ratio.
We pass for that single reason. Strong cyclical recovery numbers and a wide analyst consensus cannot override the screen when leverage breaches the line we set.
The sector can flip fast when travel slows and high debt leaves little room for error. A low multiple on peak earnings is often a warning, not a bargain. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TCOM trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-14Markdown · changed$39.19-14.7%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 14.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $60.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 3.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (28 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $71.
2026-07-18Markdown$47.69+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (28 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $71.
2026-07-03Markdown$47.69+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$47.69Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
