NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,418+0.42%BTC$81,092+6.14%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 21:00 UTC
The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Occidental Petroleum
OXY · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $60.6B · 10,412 employees
Occidental Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties in the United States and internationally.
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 21:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Occidental Petroleum holds its Distribution at $60.65. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 261 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 261 days
Price at the screen
$60.65
Valuation
17.89 trailing · 15.81 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 84.5
Beta
0.16
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
27.74%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 27.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
2.94%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 2.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
5.40%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 5.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.01%
Below 5%
Only 1.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OVERVALUED: it trades above our $49.71 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 53.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 18.0% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 24 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +10% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Oil Producer Priced Above Its Own Numbers
Picture an oil rig that only turns a profit when crude stays above sixty dollars. Occidental sits in exactly that spot right now, trading eleven percent above our fair value while revenue slips eight percent and return on equity limps at four percent.
The narrow moat and twenty-two percent profit margin look respectable until you remember this is a cyclical business. A forward multiple of fourteen times earnings often signals peak profits rather than a bargain, and the market's buy rating with a sixty-five dollar median target does not change that arithmetic.
Ethical screens clear, yet the combination of negative growth, thin returns and a price detached from value leaves no margin for the next downturn in energy prices. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
OXY trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 12.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (24 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $65.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (24 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $65.
2026-07-18Markup$56.93+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (24 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $65.
2026-07-03Markup$56.93+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$56.93Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.