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The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
CNQCanadian Natural Resources Ltd
CNQ · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $110.5B · 10,750 employees
Canadian Natural Resources Limited engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, production, marketing, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) in Western Canada, the United Kingdom sec…
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.56, read 2026-11-03
Ethical passes the values gate
Price53.60 USD
Fair value42.15
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 3 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-21Read Accumulation54.12-1.0% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 15% rise in 3 weeks
2026-10-02Read Markdown47.17+13.6% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-09-05Read Accumulation49.59+8.1% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 7% rise in 5 weeks
2026-08-03Read Markup46.44+15.4% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since July
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd holds its Accumulation at $53.60. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 116 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-03
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 116 days
Price at the screen
$53.60
Valuation
13.17 trailing · 12.12 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.91
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
18.10%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 18.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
5.09%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 5.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.46%
Below 5%
Only 0.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Canadian Natural Resources clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 18%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026: it trades above our $42.15 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 69.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 27.2% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $42.15, with a range of $39.84 to $48.48, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Oil major priced above its own fair value
Picture an oil rig pumping at full tilt while crude prices sit near recent highs. Canadian Natural Resources clears the ethical screen with a narrow moat and solid 23 percent ROE, yet the shares trade at 43.89 dollars against a 33.95 dollar fair value. Revenue is already slipping one percent and the forward multiple of 12.1 times leaves little room for the next downturn in energy prices.
That combination produces a clear pass. The business generates healthy 25 percent profit margins today, but the market is paying up for what look like peak-cycle earnings. A narrow moat offers scant protection when commodity prices reset, and the negative margin of safety tells us the current quote already bakes in optimistic assumptions.
Cyclical value traps often appear cheap on low multiples right before earnings roll over. Analyst targets sit higher at 47 dollars, yet history shows those forecasts rarely survive a sustained drop in oil. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CNQ trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Accumulation$53.60-1.0%Entry 18
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $46.
2026-10-28Accumulation$54.12+0.0%Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $46.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 9.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $46.
2026-10-14Markdown$49.65+5.3%Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 5.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $46.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$47.17-4.9%Entry 14
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $46.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 6.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $46.
2026-08-06Markup$46.44+0.0%Entry 12
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $46. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-05Markup$46.44+0.0%Entry 11
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $46. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-04Markup$46.44+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $46. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-03Markup · changed$46.44+0.0%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 26% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 45%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $46. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.