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The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Diamondback Energy
FANG · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $58.1B · 1,762 employees
Diamondback Energy, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, acquires, develops, explores, and exploits unconventional, onshore oil and natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin in West Texas, the United States.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.50, read 2026-11-02
Ethical passes the values gate
Price199.74 USD
Fair value207.31
Ethical score91.1/100
RatingOPPORTUNITY
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-25Read Accumulation195.60+2.1% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-18Read Markdown195.60+2.1% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since October
2026-10-11Read Distribution186.67+7.0% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution
2026-10-02Read Markdown186.67+7.0% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown after a 12% slide in 5 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Diamondback Energy holds its Accumulation at $199.74. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 370 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-02
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 370 days
Price at the screen
$199.74
Valuation
39.32 trailing · 9.82 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 91.1
Beta
0.54
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
20.94%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 20.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
2.10%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 2.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.17%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Diamondback Energy clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 21%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-02. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads OPPORTUNITY: it trades at roughly a 4% discount to our $207.31 fair value, weak competitive moat, 52.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-02 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 3.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $207.31, with a range of $191.70 to $238.41, dated to the 2026-11-02 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Permian Oil Play Shows Classic Cyclical Trap
Picture a rig crew in West Texas celebrating higher crude prices while the next downturn already brews on the horizon. Diamondback Energy sits right in that cycle, with a forward P/E of 11.5 times that looks tempting until the weak numbers come into view. Revenue growth sits at just 4 percent, profit margins at 2 percent and return on equity at zero, all inside a business with only a weak moat.
The low multiple and strong buy consensus from 28 analysts create the usual allure for cyclical names. Yet the stock trades above our fair value of 186 dollars against a 195 dollar price, leaving almost no margin of safety. In energy exploration this pattern often marks peak earnings rather than a genuine bargain.
Oil price swings remain the dominant risk and can erase apparent value quickly when volumes or realisations fall. The ethical screen passes but does not change the structural warning signs. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
FANG trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-02Accumulation$212.08+0.0%Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $232. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Accumulation$212.08+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $232. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Accumulation$212.08+2.7%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $232. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Accumulation$206.43+0.1%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $232. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Accumulation$206.22+5.4%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $232. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$195.60+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $232. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$195.60+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $232. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Accumulation$195.60+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $232. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $232.
2026-10-18Markdown · changed$195.60+4.8%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 4.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (29 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $232.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
