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The Screen · Financials · Credit Services
Mastercard
MA · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $556.9B · 39,800 employees
Mastercard Incorporated, a technology company, provides transaction processing and other payment-related products and services in the United States and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
672.68 USD
Price as of 4 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-04 · the tape above runs as of 12:01 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price672.68 USD at the 4 Nov 2026 close
Our value readOvervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026
Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-10-02
Options put/call open interest 1.63, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price672.68 USD
Fair value508.03
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-05Read Markup672.68+0.0% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 19% rise in 4 weeks
2026-10-11Read Accumulation567.65+18.5% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation with results news in the headlines
2026-10-02Read Markdown567.65+18.5% to today Markup gives way to Markdown after a 5% rise in 9 weeks
2026-07-30Read Markup539.66+24.6% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after a 10% rise in 4 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Mastercard holds its Markup at $672.68. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 76 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 76 days
Price at the screen
$672.68
Valuation
34.97 trailing · 27.55 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.76
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Mastercard does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today MA does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades above our $508.03 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 14.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 32.4% above the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $508.03, with a range of $495.00 to $584.23, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it gives us pause
At 27.6x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. It trades 27% above our $508.03 fair value, so you would be buying at a premium, not a discount. The strong moat is real, but quality alone does not make an expensive price cheap.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MA trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Markup · changed$672.68+7.9%Entry 23
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $647.
2026-10-29Accumulation$623.60+3.4%Entry 22
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 3.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $647. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Accumulation$603.24+0.0%Entry 21
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $647. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Accumulation$603.24+0.0%Entry 20
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $647. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Accumulation$603.24+0.0%Entry 19
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $647. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Accumulation$603.24+0.0%Entry 18
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $647. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Accumulation$603.24+0.0%Entry 17
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $647. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Accumulation$603.24+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $647. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Accumulation$603.24+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 14% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $647. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Accumulation$603.24+6.3%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 6.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $647.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
