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The Screen · Financials · Credit Services
Mastercard
MA · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $500.1B · 39,800 employees
Mastercard Incorporated, a technology company, provides transaction processing and other payment-related products and services in the United States and internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
570.89 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 13:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Mastercard holds its Markdown at $570.89. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 64 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 64 days
Price at the screen
$570.89
Valuation
31.38 trailing · 24.79 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.74
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $507.69 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 14.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 11.1% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 37 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +17% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Mastercard's Profits Fall Foul of Ethical Standards
Imagine every time you swipe that red-and-gold card, a portion of the transaction fee goes to a company with questionable ethical practices. That's Mastercard for you—a tech company that facilitates transactions and payment services worldwide. Despite a robust 14% revenue growth and an impressive 46% profit margin, Mastercard fails our ethical screen, which is a critical filter for us at Titan Protect.
Why it stands out, or rather, why we pass, is due to Mastercard's strong financial performance; a 241% return on equity and a moat rating of 'strong' signal a company well-entrenched in its market. However, the consensus strong buy from 37 analysts and a median target price of $668 seems detached from our fair value of $506.69, indicating a potential overvaluation.
Yet, the real risk here is ethical. Mastercard fails our business activity screen, a criterion non-negotiable at Titan Protect. While the market may price it as a strong buy, our ethical-first approach compels us to sidestep such practices. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MA trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-30Markup$573.85+6.3%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $647.
2026-07-30Markup · changed$539.66+0.0%Entry 10
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $647. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-28Distribution$539.66+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $647. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Distribution$539.66+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $647. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Distribution$539.66+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $647. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Distribution$539.66-0.7%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $647. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Distribution$543.60+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $647. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Distribution$543.60+10.7%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 10.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $647. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Distribution$491.08+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (36 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $647.
2026-07-03Distribution$491.08+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
