Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price6.79 USD
Fair value6.38
Ethical score92.3/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-04Read Accumulation6.19+9.7% to today ✓
2026-08-04Read Distribution6.36+6.8% to today
2026-07-02Read Accumulation8.63-21.3% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Lithium Argentina AG holds its Markdown at $6.79. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-07
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$6.79
Valuation
N/A trailing · 19.83 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 92.3
Beta
2.46
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
14.59%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 14.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
5.84%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 5.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $6.38 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-07 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 6.1% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +58% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-07 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Lithium Project Faces Weak Returns in Volatile Sector
Picture a miner chasing the next electric car boom in Argentina's salt flats. Every new battery plant needs the metal, yet Lithium Argentina is still posting zero profit margins and a negative 7% return on equity. The forward multiple sits at 13.5 times, but that figure means little when earnings have yet to appear and the moat remains weak. We pass because the business shows no durable edge in a sector that swings hard with commodity prices.
The 12% gap to fair value looks modest next to analyst targets of 12 dollars. In cyclical mining, a low multiple often signals peak conditions rather than a bargain. Pastos Grandes and Cauchari-Olaroz projects sit in regions where costs, permits and water rights can shift quickly. Without stronger returns on capital, the setup stays fragile even if lithium demand keeps rising.
Currency moves, project delays and sudden price drops remain the real threats. The ethical screen clears, yet the operating record does not yet justify stepping in.
Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Switzerland and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
LAR trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Switzerland). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-04Accumulation · changed$6.19-2.7%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 60% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 315%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 26.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 60% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 315%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-07-18Accumulation$8.63+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 60% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 315%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (8 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $13.
2026-07-03Accumulation$8.63+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (92). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$8.63Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with near-perfect ethical score (92). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.