Elevra Lithium Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the identification, acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral assets in Australia and Canada.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price44.95 USD
Fair value22.48
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-27Read Accumulation61.87-27.3% to today
2026-07-02Read Markdown84.51-46.8% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Elevra Lithium Limited holds its Markdown at $44.95. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 25 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-16
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 25 days
Price at the screen
$44.95
Valuation
16.77 trailing · 642.14 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.86
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
18.19%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 18.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
14.61%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 14.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.92%
Below 5%
Only 1.9% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-16 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 50.0% above the base estimate.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-16 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Lithium dreams priced far beyond reality
Picture a junior miner hunting lithium in remote Australian and Canadian ground while burning cash at every step. Elevra trades at sixty dollars against a fair value of thirty, a margin of safety that sits at minus fifty percent. Forward earnings sit at eight hundred fifty times, revenue edges up only eight percent, and both profit margins and return on equity remain deeply negative. Ethical checks clear, yet the numbers show a business that has yet to prove it can deliver consistent profits in a notoriously volatile sector.
We pass for the straightforward reason that the price already prices in far more success than the current results support. Unknown competitive edge and a forward multiple this stretched leave little room for the usual exploration disappointments that hit these projects. In cyclical metals the trap is classic: peak commodity sentiment meets stretched valuations and investors discover the low point in earnings still lies ahead.
Lithium prices swing hard with battery demand and new supply, turning apparently cheap entries into permanent capital losses when cycles turn. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; its business and earnings are exposed to Australia and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ELVR trades on Nasdaq (the company is based in Australia). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 60%.
2026-07-27Markdown$60.10-28.9%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 28.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 60%.
2026-07-18Markdown$84.51+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 60%.
2026-07-03Markdown$84.51+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$84.51Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.