Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price222.43 USD
Fair value172.32
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Distribution222.43+0.0% to today
2026-08-28Read Markup268.64-17.2% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution227.22-2.1% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Erie Indemnity holds its Markdown at $222.43. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 17 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-29
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 17 days
Price at the screen
$222.43
Valuation
20.18 trailing · 15.88 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.31
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Erie Indemnity does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $172.32 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 2.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-29 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 22.5% above the base estimate.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-29 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Insurance middleman fails on ethics and price
Picture a firm that collects fees for running an insurance exchange yet never carries the risk of claims itself. Erie Indemnity sits in that exact spot, handling renewals, agent pay and advertising for the Erie Insurance Exchange.
We pass because the business activity screen flags it outright. Revenue is creeping along at just 2 percent, the shares trade 24 percent above our fair value of 172 dollars, and a forward multiple of 16 times offers no margin for error despite a 26 percent return on equity.
The 14 percent profit margin and moderate moat look stable on paper, yet the ethical failure removes any case for ownership. Currency or cyclical swings are not the issue here. The valuation simply leaves no room once the screen has spoken.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ERIE trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 17.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%.
2026-08-28Markup · changed$268.64+18.2%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 18.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%.
2026-07-27Distribution$227.31+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%.
2026-07-18Distribution$227.22+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%.
2026-07-03Distribution$227.22+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$227.22Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
