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The Screen · Financials · Insurance Brokers
ARXAccelerant Holdings
ARX · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $4.3B · 862 employees
Accelerant Holdings, together with its subsidiaries, operates a data-driven risk exchange that connects selected specialty insurance underwriters with risk capital partners.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
19.81 USD
Price as of 27 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-10-27 · the tape above runs as of 20:02 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price19.81 USD at the 27 Oct 2026 close
Our ratingAvoid, current read accumulation
Ethical screenDoes not pass
OptionsOpen interest leans heavily to calls (put/call 0.03)
Last reviewed27 Oct 2026 (2 days ago)
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 19.81 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 17.15, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.03, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price19.81 USD
Fair value17.15
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-25Read Accumulation19.76+0.3% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-11Read Markdown19.74+0.4% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-09-24Read Accumulation19.78+0.2% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 32% rise in 12 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup14.99+32.2% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Accelerant Holdings holds its Accumulation at $19.81. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 29 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-27
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 29 days
Price at the screen
$19.81
Valuation
N/A trailing · 21.15 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Financial sector: insurance
Fail
Debt load
0.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
8.98%
Below 5%
9.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Accelerant does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when ARX's ethical verdict changes
Today ARX does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades above our $17.15 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 57.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 13.4% above the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Insurance broker fails ethical test before numbers even register
Picture an exchange built to match specialty underwriters with outside capital in places where traditional insurers hesitate. Accelerant Holdings sits at that intersection yet trips our ethical screen on business activity, which alone rules it out regardless of any other metric. The company posts 60% revenue growth but cannot turn that into profit, posting a -151% margin and -243% return on equity, so the growth story never reaches the bottom line.
Forward earnings sit at 14.6 times while the moat remains weak and the shares trade below our fair value with an 18% margin of safety. Nine analysts still carry a buy rating and an $18 median target, yet we pass because the ethical failure overrides any valuation gap or analyst consensus. High growth without positive returns or competitive protection simply does not compensate for the red flag already raised.
Currency, regulatory and execution risks in the Cayman structure add further layers of uncertainty that the weak moat cannot offset. The business model may sound efficient on paper but the combination of losses and the ethical breach leaves no room for consideration. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Cayman Islands and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ARX trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Cayman Islands). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-10-18Markdown$19.76+0.1%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-10-11Markdown · changed$19.74+0.0%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-10-02Accumulation$19.74-0.2%Entry 8
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-08-22Markup$19.56+44.7%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 44.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-07-21Markup$13.52-9.8%Entry 5
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 9.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-07-18Markup$14.99+0.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-07-17Markup$14.99+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $19.
2026-07-03Markup$14.99+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.