ARX
Accelerant Holdings
Financial Services · Insurance Brokers · NYQ
$12.62
Close 2026-05-13
✗ ETHICAL FAIL

WEAK MOAT
HIGH
Data Confidence: 100%
Full financial profile available
Market Cap
$2.8B
Trailing P/E
Forward P/E
14.62
Rev Growth
+49.2%
Profit Margin
-166.4%
ROE
-245.6%
Analyst Target
$18.17
Recommendation
BUY
About Accelerant Holdings

Accelerant Holdings, together with its subsidiaries, operates a data-driven risk exchange that connects selected specialty insurance underwriters with risk capital partners. It operates through Exchange Services, MGA Operations, and Underwriting segments. The Exchange Services segment consists of risk exchange, its operating platform that incorporates various technology, data ingestion, and agency operations that serve the needs of its members and risk capital partners. Its Risk capital partners write premiums directly through the Risk Exchange pay us a fixed-percentage, volume-based fee for sourcing, managing, and monitoring the business they write. The MGA Operations segment includes the fees earned by members, predominantly for originating and underwriting a portfolio of insurance policies, reduced by the expenses associated with providing services. The Underwriting segment is involved in underwriting insurance policies and assumption of reinsurance policies issued or accepted by consolidated insurance and reinsurance companies. The activities of insurance companies include property and casualty insurance, policy issuance, and reinsurance arrangements. It serves small-to-medium sized commercial clients primarily in the United States, Europe, Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom. Accelerant Holdings was founded in 2018 and is based in Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands.

Opportunity Summary
Trading near fair value at $13 (estimated $13). Fails ethical screen (Business activity). Ranks better than 70% of screened stocks.
Ethical Screen
Business ActivityFAIL
Debt Ratio (0.00%)PASS
Cash Ratio (0.00%)PASS
Receivables Ratio (0.00%)PASS
Revenue Ratio (0.00%)PASS
OverallFAIL
Score Ethical: 10.0
Score Valuation: 77.5
Score Quality: 33.8
Score Combined: 40.3
Fair Value Est: $12.95 · Margin of Safety: +2.6% · Tier: AVOID

Full Analysis

Opportunity scores, earnings history, insider transactions, institutional holders, analyst consensus, and more.

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Opportunity Scores
Valuation85.0
Quality25.0
Cash Flow50.0
Moat25.0
Balance Sheet100.0
Debt Purity100.0
Liquid Purity100.0
Rev Purity100.0
Compliance100.0
Tier: SILVER · Score: 64.0 · Rank: #394
Earnings History (Last 8 Quarters)
DateEPS Est.Reported EPSSurprise %
2026-08-120.16Pending--
2026-05-130.160.17+8.3%
2026-03-180.08Pending--
2025-11-120.210.39+80.6%
2025-08-280.120.14+14.4%
Quarterly Financials
PeriodRevenueNet IncomeEBITDAGross ProfitOp. IncomeEPS
2026-03-31$279.1M-$5.2M-0.02
2025-12-31$209.4M-$600.0K
2025-09-30$280.7M-$1.4B-6.99
2025-06-30$204.2M$8.8M0.04
2025-03-31$175.8M$6.5M0.04
Insider Transactions
DateNameRoleSharesValue
2026-05-13WAINWRIGHT SIMONDirector23,316--
2026-05-13STERNBERG MATTHEW DAVIDOfficer279,329--
2026-05-13MERIWETHER KAREN SUEDirector11,658--
2026-05-13HASLEY NANCYDirector11,658--
2026-05-13LITTLE PAUL CHRISTOPHERDirector11,658--
2026-05-13TALACH DAVID GEORGE PAULDirector23,316--
2026-03-23GREEN JAY MICHAELChief Financial Officer50,000$638.3K
2026-03-18RADKE JEFFREY LChief Executive Officer300,171--
2026-03-18STERNBERG MATTHEW DAVIDOfficer180,667--
2026-03-18ONEILL FRANCIS JAMESOfficer128,644--
Top Institutional Holders
HolderSharesValue% Held
SECURITY BENEFIT LIFE INSURANCE CO5.9M$101.2M0.1%
Capital World Investors5.2M$88.9M0.0%
Keenan Capital, LLC4.0M$68.9M0.0%
Gilder Gagnon Howe & Co LLC3.7M$64.6M0.0%
American Century Companies Inc3.2M$55.0M0.0%
Barings LLC3.1M$54.0M0.0%
Alliancebernstein L.P.2.8M$48.3M0.0%
Marshall Wace LLP2.3M$39.2M0.0%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC2.1M$36.5M0.0%
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO2.0M$34.9M0.0%
Analyst Recommendations
3 Months Ago
4
5
10 analysts
2 Months Ago
4
5
10 analysts
Last Month
4
4
2
10 analysts
Current
4
5
10 analysts
Strong Buy Buy Hold Sell Strong Sell
Additional Fundamentals
Enterprise Value
$2.3B
Price/Book
5.51
Analysts
9
Total Revenue (TTM)
$951.6M
Total Debt
$120.7M
Rec. Mean
1.60
Short Ratio
2.93
Short % Float
0.1%
Employees
862

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Trade Consideration
The Opportunity
Score 40.3 (P44 — top 55.5% of scored tickers). Weak Moat. Ethical FAIL. 9 analysts at Buy.
Price: $12.62 | Target: $19.06 (+51%) | Fair Value: $12.95 (+3%)
Score
40
Moat
WEAK
Conviction
Standard
Upside
+51%
The Fundamentals
Revenue Growth+49.2%
Profit Margin-166.4%
ROE-245.6%
Forward P/E14.6
Market Cap$2.8B
Earnings Track Record
DateEstimateReportedSurprise
2026-08-12$0.16Pending
2026-05-13$0.16$0.17+8.3%
2026-03-18$0.08Pending
2025-11-12$0.21$0.39+80.6%
2025-08-28$0.12$0.14+14.4%
Position Sizing Scenarios
Stop: $10.73 (-15%) | Entry: $12.62
SharesCostProfit to TargetR:R
To Consensus ($19.06, 9 analysts)
10$126.20+$64.40 (51%)3.4R
50$631.00+$322.00 (51%)3.4R
100$1,262.00+$644.00 (51%)3.4R
To Fair Value ($12.95)
10$126.20+$3.30 (3%)0.2R
50$631.00+$16.50 (3%)0.2R
100$1,262.00+$33.00 (3%)0.2R
Risk Factors
  • No elevated risk flags in current data
The Verdict
Accelerant Holdings holds a weak competitive moat and is growing revenue at +49.2%.
Quantitative Grade

A single score combining all analytical layers below. A is strongest, D is weakest.

B
Quant Score
66.3
Risk Grade
Layers
8
Risk Profile

How much could this ticker lose on a bad day? These metrics measure worst-case scenarios from historical data.

VaR 95%
-6.4%
worst expected daily loss, 19 in 20 days
CVaR 95%
-10.0%
avg loss on the worst 5% of days
Annual Volatility
Sortino Ratio
-0.99
above 1.0 is good
Max Drawdown
-68.8%
Worst Day
Forward Outlook

Based on 10,000 simulated price paths, here is the probability of where this ticker could be in 30, 60, and 90 days.

30d Prob Up
90d Prob Up
Median Return 30d
Liquidity Score
40
Liquidity Grade
MODERATE
Trend & Momentum

What direction is this ticker actually moving, filtered through noise? Is it speeding up or slowing down?

Kalman Trend
Trend Strength
Momentum Signal
HMM Regime
RSI Signal
Technical Signals

Classic chart signals that institutional traders monitor. Golden Cross is bullish, Death Cross is bearish.

MA Crossover
BELOW_200
Bollinger Position
NEAR_UPPER
Beta
Relative Volume
Short Interest
Financial Health

Is this company financially sound? The Z-Score measures bankruptcy risk. The F-Score measures fundamental strength.

Altman Z-Score
below 1.81 = distress zone
Piotroski F-Score
Earnings Beat Rate
75.0%
Earnings Consistency
Correlations

These tickers tend to move together (positive) or in opposite directions (negative). Useful for portfolio diversification.

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Inverse Correlated
TickerCorrelation
INLX-0.317
NBRVF-0.256
MCLDF-0.255
VNET-0.227
PAHC-0.212
Seasonality

Does this ticker have consistent patterns on certain days or months? Historical tendencies, not guarantees.

Best Day
Tuesday
Worst Day
Wednesday
Best Month
May
Worst Month
Aug
Fri-Mon Effect
0.10406433935080778
Earnings Drift

After this company beats earnings, does the price keep going up? Drift tracks post-earnings momentum.

Avg Drift After Beat
-3.2%
Beat Drift Positive %
50.0%
Consistency
Momentum Rankings

How does this ticker's recent performance compare to the entire universe? Ranked across 1, 3, 6, and 12-month returns.

1M Return
+28.9%
3M Return
+79.0%
6M Return
+31.8%
12M Return
Momentum Rank
#319
Momentum Signal
STRONG_UP

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