Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price43.65 USD
Fair value56.25
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Distribution43.65+0.0% to today
2026-08-31Read Accumulation68.39-36.2% to today
2026-07-31Read Markup54.28-19.6% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution36.82+18.5% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. holds its Distribution at $43.65. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 35 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-24
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 35 days
Price at the screen
$43.65
Valuation
31.86 trailing · 16.17 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
1.36
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Goosehead Insurance, does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-24 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 28.9% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 12 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +65% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-24 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Insurance broker growth hits ethical red line
Picture a homeowner in Texas phoning an agent to sort car and house cover in one call. Goosehead has built a fast network that lifts revenue 23% a year while margins sit at 8%. Yet the numbers never reach our desk because the ethical screen already blocks insurance names outright.
We therefore pass. The forward multiple of 19.7 times earnings leaves little room once the sector restriction is applied, and the modest three percent gap to our fair value adds no extra reason to look closer. Analyst targets at seventy one dollars change nothing when the first filter rules the name out.
Currency or cycle risk is secondary here. The ethical bar is fixed and this business sits on the wrong side of it. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
GSHD trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 36.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 64%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $67. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. Since the last review it its composite score rose.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 26.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 64%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $67.
2026-07-31Markup · changed$54.28+47.4%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 47.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 64%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $67.
2026-07-18Distribution$36.82+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 64%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 22%. The street (12 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $67.
2026-07-03Distribution$36.82+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$36.82Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
