Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-08-25
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price60.24 USD
Fair value74.69
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Distribution60.24+0.0% to today
2026-08-23Read Markup72.92-17.4% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution58.86+2.3% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Brown & Brown holds its Distribution at $60.24. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 22 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-28
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 22 days
Price at the screen
$60.24
Valuation
19.25 trailing · 12.48 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.58
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Brown & Brown does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 24% discount to our $74.69 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 32.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-28 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 24.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 16 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +28% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-28 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Insurance broker fails ethical screen test
Picture every policy sold in America. The broker stands in the middle, skimming a fee while the underwriter takes the real risk. Brown & Brown has lifted revenue 36 percent, yet that growth sits beside a clear ethical fail on the business activity screen.
We pass for that single reason. Forward earnings trade at 14.3 times with an 18 percent profit margin and 12 percent return on equity, numbers that look steady but cannot override the screen. The moderate moat and consensus hold rating near $73 add little once ethics close the door.
Insurance brokerage can turn cyclical fast when rates soften or claims spike. A modest valuation offers no cushion if earnings peak and multiples compress further. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BRO trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 17.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $76.
2026-08-23Markup · changed$72.92+5.1%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $73.
2026-07-23Distribution$69.35+17.8%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 17.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $73.
2026-07-18Distribution$58.86+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 43%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 8%. The street (16 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $73.
2026-07-03Distribution$58.86+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$58.86Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
