NAS10031,076+0.87%S&P7,774+0.66%GOLD$4,183+0.62%BTC$85,936+0.17%VIX15.44−0.52%live tape · as of 09:09 UTC
The Screen · Financials · Insurance Brokers
Marsh McLennan
MRSH · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $81.7B · 95,000 employees
Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc., a professional services company, provides advisory services and insurance solutions to clients in the areas of risk, strategy, and people worldwide.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
171.12 USD
Screen close, 2026-09-25 · not a live quote Last reviewed 11 days ago
Screened 2026-09-25 · the tape above runs as of 09:09 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 171.12 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 186.58, over the last year.
Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-14
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price171.12 USD
Fair value186.58
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-05Read Distribution190.21-10.0% to today ✓
2026-08-06Read Markup191.47-10.6% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution165.44+3.4% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Marsh McLennan holds its Distribution at $171.12. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-25
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$171.12
Valuation
20.87 trailing · 15.00 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.58
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Marsh McLennan does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 9% discount to our $186.58 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 6.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-25 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 9.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 21 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +18% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-25 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Global Risk Broker Hits Ethical Wall
Think of the firm that helps multinationals price everything from hurricane damage to cyber threats. Marsh McLennan sits in that seat, delivering 8 percent revenue growth, a 14 percent profit margin and 28 percent ROE at a forward multiple of 16.1 times.
Those figures sit close to our fair value of 184.66 dollars, yet the ethical screen rules it out on business activity grounds. Moderate moat or not, the fail is decisive and leaves the modest 1 percent margin of safety irrelevant.
Analyst targets cluster near 200 dollars and the buy rating looks tempting on paper alone, but the ethical block overrides any cyclical or valuation debate. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MRSH trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Distribution$171.12-10.0%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 10.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 6%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $203.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 6%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $203.
2026-08-06Markup · changed$191.47+15.7%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 15.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 6%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $203.
2026-07-18Distribution$165.44+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 6%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $203.
2026-07-16Distribution$165.44+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 6%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $203. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03Distribution$165.44+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$165.44Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.