AON · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $67.0B · 60,000 employees
Aon plc operates as a professional services firm in the United States, rest of the Americas, the United Kingdom, Ireland, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
315.79 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Aon plc holds its Distribution at $315.79. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$315.79
Valuation
17.42 trailing · 15.47 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.66
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 10% discount to our $346.62 fair value, strong competitive moat, 2.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 9.8% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 17 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +23% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Broker giant trips on its own ethics test
Aon sits between big companies and the insurers that actually underwrite their risks, taking a cut on advice and placement without carrying the policies itself. The numbers look tidy, with 46 percent return on equity, 23 percent profit margins and a moat rated strong, yet none of that moves the needle once the ethical screen flags the business activity.
We pass for that single reason. Revenue is growing at just 6 percent and the shares trade above our fair value at 17.2 times forward earnings, so the case was already thin before ethics entered the room. Analyst targets sit higher, but that is not the test we apply.
The main risk is that steady demand for risk advice keeps margins fat even as ethical concerns stay unresolved. Currency moves and any slowdown in corporate spending would still hit results, yet the ethical fail is what keeps us away regardless of the cycle. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Ireland and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AON trades on a US exchange (the company is based in Ireland). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $385.
2026-07-21Markup$367.21+11.8%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 11.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $385.
2026-07-18Markup$328.53+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $385.
2026-07-17Markup$328.53+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $385.
2026-07-03Markup$328.53+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$328.53Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.