An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Aon plc operates as a professional services firm in the United States, rest of the Americas, the United Kingdom, Ireland, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $367.17
Aon plc holds its Markup at $367.17.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-27
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 30 days
Price
$367.17
Valuation
20.14 trailing · 17.18 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.71
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades above our $355.31 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 6.50% revenue growth.
Read at
$367.17
20.14 P/E · 17.18 fwd
Our fair value
$355.31
3% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$390.00
+6% to current
Target low $327.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $445.00
▲ current $367.17 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$367.17
you are here
Conservative
$294.30
-20%
Analyst avg
$390.00
+6%
Our fair value
$355.31
-3%
Analyst high
$445.00
+21%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
6.50%
Profit margin
22.54%
Debt to equity
155.05
Analyst consensus
Buy · 19 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its business activity screen. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityBusiness activity: Financials sectorFail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Broker giant trips on its own ethics test
Aon sits between big companies and the insurers that actually underwrite their risks, taking a cut on advice and placement without carrying the policies itself. The numbers look tidy, with 46 percent return on equity, 23 percent profit margins and a moat rated strong, yet none of that moves the needle once the ethical screen flags the business activity.
We pass for that single reason. Revenue is growing at just 6 percent and the shares trade above our fair value at 17.2 times forward earnings, so the case was already thin before ethics entered the room. Analyst targets sit higher, but that is not the test we apply.
The main risk is that steady demand for risk advice keeps margins fat even as ethical concerns stay unresolved. Currency moves and any slowdown in corporate spending would still hit results, yet the ethical fail is what keeps us away regardless of the cycle. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Ireland and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
AON trades on a US exchange (the company is based in Ireland). As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 11.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $385. Entered 2026-07-21 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-21Markup$367.21+11.8%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 11.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $385.
2026-07-18Markup$328.53+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $385.
2026-07-17Markup$328.53+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 4%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 13%. The street (19 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $385.
2026-07-03Markup$328.53+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$328.53Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.