Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-07-30
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price140.33 USD
Fair value119.24
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-22Read Accumulation135.39+3.6% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markdown124.47+12.7% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
American Water Works holds its Accumulation at $140.33. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 13 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 13 days
Price at the screen
$140.33
Valuation
24.32 trailing · 21.37 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.58
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
44.91%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 44.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
1.39%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 1.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.75%
Below 5%
Only 1.8% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $119.24 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 6.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 15.0% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 11 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits −0% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Turning on the tap still costs too much
Every morning millions of households expect clean water at the turn of a handle. American Water Works sits at the centre of that daily routine across dozens of US states. Yet the shares trade well above our fair value with a negative margin of safety, a forward multiple of 20.6 times earnings and only 6 percent revenue growth. That combination leaves little room for error.
The business prints a solid 21 percent profit margin and a 10 percent return on equity with a moderate moat. Eleven analysts call it a hold with a median target just above the current price. None of this changes the fact that the shares already price in steady regulated returns while leaving valuation and balance-sheet questions unaddressed.
Debt levels trip the ethical screen outright. In a sector where capital intensity is high and rates are capped, that leverage adds real fragility when interest costs rise or regulators push back. We pass. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AWK trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $136.
2026-07-22Markdown$135.11+8.5%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 8.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $136.
2026-07-18Markdown$124.47+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 8%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 11%. The street (11 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $136.
2026-07-03Markdown$124.47+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$124.47Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
