NAS10029,447+1.73%S&P7,638+1.14%GOLD$4,384−0.08%BTC$76,220+0.09%VIX15.44−12.82%live tape · as of 23:00 UTC · 17 Sep
The Screen · Technology · Semiconductors
Broadcom
AVGO · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $1.75T · 33,000 employees
Broadcom Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
368.56 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 23:00 UTC · 17 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Broadcom holds its Markdown at $368.56. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 142 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 142 days
Price at the screen
$368.56
Valuation
47.01 trailing · 19.01 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.46
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
38.07%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 38.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
13.63%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 13.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.54%
Below 5%
Only 0.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $350.66 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 85.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 4.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 46 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +46% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
High-Flying Chipmaker with Heavy Debt
Imagine the world's tech gadgets and servers as a gigantic puzzle, Broadcom provides the crucial pieces. Broadcom (AVGO) designs and supplies semiconductor devices and infrastructure software that power the digital age, making it a key player in the tech industry. Its forward P/E of 18.6x might suggest a bargain, but in a cyclical sector like semiconductors, high revenue growth and profit margins are no guarantee against a cyclical value trap.
However, despite the strong moat and a consensus strong buy from analysts with a median target of $530, we can't overlook the ethical red flag. Broadcom fails our ethical screen, primarily due to its high debt ratio. This could be a significant risk factor, especially in times of economic stress, when debt can weigh heavily on a company’s ability to navigate market downturns.
In conclusion, while Broadcom's numbers are impressive, the high debt levels pose considerable risk, particularly in a cyclical market. This is why, despite the allure of its current growth, we must give Broadcom an avoid rating. The market might be pricing it as a star performer, but the ethical and financial risks suggest caution. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AVGO trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-02Markdown$364.03+0.0%Entry 14
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (44 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $480. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-01Markdown$364.03+0.0%Entry 13
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (44 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $480. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-31Markdown$364.03+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (44 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $480. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-30Markdown$364.03+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (44 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $480. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-29Markdown$364.03+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (44 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $480. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-28Markdown$364.03+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (44 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $480. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-27Markdown$364.03+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (44 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $480. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-26Markdown$364.03+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (44 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $480. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-22Markdown$364.03-1.8%Entry 6
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (44 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $480.
2026-07-22Markdown$370.830.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 21% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 54%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (44 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $480.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
