Allianz SE, together with its subsidiaries, provides property-casualty insurance, life/health insurance, and asset management products and services worldwide.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
51.41 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Allianz SE holds its Accumulation at $51.41. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 307 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 307 days
Price at the screen
$51.41
Valuation
14.56 trailing · 13.43 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.67
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Financial sector: insurance
Fail
Debt load
0.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 33% discount to our $68.16 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 12.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 32.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Global Insurance Giant Fails Ethical Bar
Imagine a world where every car, house, and life is insured, and Allianz SE is a titan in that world. Together with its subsidiaries, Allianz provides a vast array of insurance and asset management services on a global scale. Despite a robust revenue growth of 12% and a healthy profit margin of 10%, it stands out for all the wrong reasons in our book.
The reason we're steering clear is twofold: firstly, the ethical screen. Allianz fails on business activity grounds, a critical factor for our ethical-first approach. This is not a matter of valuation or market potential, but a hard line on ethics that we cannot compromise on. Secondly, despite the attractive forward P/E of 13.3x and a moderate moat suggesting some competitive advantage, the ethical failing overshadows any potential gains.
Risk is inherent in any investment, but here it's amplified by the ethical red flag. The market may price Allianz based on its global reach and financial metrics like a 20% ROE, but for us, the ethical dimension is a deal-breaker. The consensus strong buy from two analysts and a median target of $64 is a testament to the financial appeal, but it's the ethical failing that makes us avoid this stock.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Germany and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
ALIZY trades on PNK (the company is based in Germany). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (1 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $79.
2026-08-07Markup$50.39+0.0%Entry 13
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $64. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-06Markup$50.39+4.0%Entry 12
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $64. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-05Markup$48.46+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $64. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-04Markup$48.46+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $64. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-03Markup$48.46+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $64. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-02Markup$48.46+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $64. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-01Markup$48.46+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $64. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-31Markup$48.46+0.4%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $64. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Markup$48.27+8.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 9% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 16%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $64.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
