Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-11
Options put/call open interest 0.64, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price21.75 USD
Fair value14.98
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-11-05Read Markup21.75+0.0% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markup after a 10% rise in 4 weeks
2026-10-11Read Distribution19.72+10.3% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 13% slide in 3 weeks
2026-09-17Read Markdown22.59-3.7% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 13% slide in 4 weeks
2026-08-18Read Markup25.84-15.8% to today Markdown gives way to Markup after a 6% rise in 7 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Weyerhaeuser holds its Markup at $21.75. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$21.75
Valuation
31.31 trailing · 36.96 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.93
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
33.69%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 33.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
4.62%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 4.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.32%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Weyerhaeuser's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 34% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades above our $14.98 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 45.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 11 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +15% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $14.98, with a range of $14.98 to $17.22, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it gives us pause
At 37.0x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. It trades 38% above our $14.98 fair value, so you would be buying at a premium, not a discount. The narrow moat is real, but quality alone does not make an expensive price cheap.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
WY trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-05Markup · changed$21.75+11.6%Entry 17
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 11.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $31.
2026-10-29Distribution$19.49-0.6%Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $31. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Distribution$19.61+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $31. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Distribution$19.61+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $31. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Distribution$19.61+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $31. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Distribution$19.61+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $31. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Distribution$19.61+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $31. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Distribution$19.61+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $31. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Distribution$19.61+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $31. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Distribution$19.61-0.6%Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 9%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $31.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.