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The Screen · Real Estate · REIT - Specialty
SBA Communications
SBAC · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $19.8B · 1,844 employees
SBA Communications Corporation is a leading independent owner and operator of wireless communications infrastructure.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
186.74 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 11:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
SBA Communications holds its Markdown at $186.74. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 16 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 16 days
Price at the screen
$186.74
Valuation
20.17 trailing · 22.82 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.98
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
132.35%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 132.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.18%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
3.77%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 3.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.13%
Below 5%
Only 1.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $151.58 fair value estimate, 2.30% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 18.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 20 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +20% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cell towers print cash but carry heavy debt
Picture every smartphone signal needing a tall mast to reach its destination. SBA Communications owns and runs more than 46,000 of those masts across the United States, collecting steady rents from the big wireless carriers. Revenue is growing at 6 percent and the firm keeps 36 percent of sales as profit, yet none of that changes our view.
We pass on the shares. The stock trades at 23.1 times forward earnings, well above our fair value of 163.83 dollars against the current 185.69 dollars price. On top of that the business fails our ethical screen because of its debt levels, so the combination of stretched valuation and leverage rules it out regardless of what the twenty analysts say.
The real risk sits in the balance sheet and the growth outlook. A negative margin of safety already prices in optimism that modest tower demand may not deliver, while high debt leaves little room if interest rates stay elevated or carrier spending slows. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SBAC trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-12Markdown · changed$186.74+4.7%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 4.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $235.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 14.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $235.
2026-07-18Markdown$208.02+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $235.
2026-07-03Markdown$208.02+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$208.02Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
