RYN · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $6.1B · 285 employees
Rayonier Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
20.22 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-11
Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Rayonier Inc. holds its Distribution at $20.22. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 155 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 155 days
Price at the screen
$20.22
Valuation
43.96 trailing · 32.88 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.90
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Revenue purity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
31.10%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 31.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
25.03%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 25.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
5.01%
Below 5%
5.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 15.1% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +21% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Timber REIT Trades Well Above Its True Value
Picture a vast stretch of southern pines and Pacific northwest stands that quietly grow year after year. Rayonier owns more than four million acres and runs them on a sustainable basis, yet the market price of 21.80 dollars sits 20 percent above our fair value of 17.49 dollars. With a forward multiple of 33.3 times and return on equity stuck at just 2 percent, the business shows none of the margin of safety we require.
Revenue jumped 234 percent and margins reached 69 percent, but those figures sit alongside an unknown moat and an opportunity rating of none. The ethical screen is passed, yet the combination of stretched valuation and weak capital returns leaves no room for conviction either way.
Timber markets move with housing cycles and export demand, so earnings can swing sharply even when acreage looks steady. Low returns on equity already flag that growth may not translate into lasting owner value. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
RYN trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $26.
2026-08-12Markup · changed$21.43-2.2%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $26.
2026-07-18Markdown$21.92+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $26.
2026-07-03Markdown$21.92+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$21.92Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
