Willis Lease Finance Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a lessor and servicer of commercial aircraft and aircraft engines worldwide.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
55.14 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-16
Screened 2026-09-16 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Willis Lease Finance Corporation holds its Markdown at $55.14. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 9 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-16
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 9 days
Price at the screen
$55.14
Valuation
13.89 trailing · 8.03 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.72
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
68.60%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 68.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
1.33%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 1.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-16 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 45.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 2 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +37% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-16 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Aircraft Leases Grow Fast Yet Coverage Stays Thin
Every commercial flight that leaves the ground depends on engines and airframes that someone else owns and maintains. Willis Lease sits in that chain, delivering 25% revenue growth, a 16% profit margin and 18% return on equity while trading at 10.7 times forward earnings with an 18% gap to stated fair value. The ethical screen clears it without issue.
Those headline figures still leave the business on the sidelines. Only one analyst follows the name, the moat remains unproven and the opportunity rating sits at none. Without clearer evidence of durable advantage or broader scrutiny the numbers alone do not move the needle.
Aviation demand is inherently cyclical. Any slowdown in global flying quickly hits utilisation and resale values for spare parts, and the current low multiple may simply reflect peak-cycle earnings rather than a durable bargain. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
WLFC trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-17Markdown · changed$55.14-3.3%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $226.
2026-08-18Distribution$57.04-70.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 70.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $226.
2026-07-18Distribution$190.26+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $226.
2026-07-03Distribution$190.26+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$190.26Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
