Willis Lease Finance Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a lessor and servicer of commercial aircraft and aircraft engines worldwide.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
46.92 USD
Price as of 5 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-05 · the tape above runs as of 16:01 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price46.92 USD at the 5 Nov 2026 close
Our value readUndervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.67, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price46.92 USD
Fair value80.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-27Read Distribution37.89+23.8% to today Markdown gives way to Distribution after a 31% slide in 6 weeks
2026-09-17Read Markdown55.14-14.9% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 71% slide in 11 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution190.26-75.3% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Willis Lease Finance Corporation holds its Markup at $46.92. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 17 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 17 days
Price at the screen
$46.92
Valuation
13.68 trailing · 7.91 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.72
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
68.60%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 68.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
1.33%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 1.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.93%
Below 5%
Only 1.9% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Willis Lease Finance's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 69% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today WLFC does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 40% discount to our $80.00 fair value, 0.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 41.4% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $80.00, with a range of $80.00 to $95.30, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Aircraft Leases Grow Fast Yet Coverage Stays Thin
Every commercial flight that leaves the ground depends on engines and airframes that someone else owns and maintains. Willis Lease sits in that chain, delivering 25% revenue growth, a 16% profit margin and 18% return on equity while trading at 10.7 times forward earnings with an 18% gap to stated fair value. The ethical screen clears it without issue.
Those headline figures still leave the business on the sidelines. Only one analyst follows the name, the moat remains unproven and the opportunity rating sits at none. Without clearer evidence of durable advantage or broader scrutiny the numbers alone do not move the needle.
Aviation demand is inherently cyclical. Any slowdown in global flying quickly hits utilisation and resale values for spare parts, and the current low multiple may simply reflect peak-cycle earnings rather than a durable bargain. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
WLFC trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03Distribution$41.60+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $226. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Distribution$41.60+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $226. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Distribution$41.60+6.7%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 6.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $226. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Distribution$38.99+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $226. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Distribution$38.99+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $226. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Distribution$38.99+2.9%Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $226. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Distribution$37.89+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $226. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $226. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$37.89+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $226.
2026-10-18Markdown$37.89-30.2%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 30.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 40%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $226.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
