Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 82.32, read 2026-10-24
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price30.27 USD
Fair value62.50
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-10Read Markdown39.65-23.7% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown with volume flow in agreement
2026-07-02Read Markup38.52-21.4% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
PROG Holdings, Inc. holds its Markdown at $30.27. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 41 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 41 days
Price at the screen
$30.27
Valuation
10.20 trailing · 5.74 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.78
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
37.39%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 37.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
23.78%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 23.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.29%
Below 5%
Only 0.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
PROG Holdings,'s business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 37% of the company, just over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when PRG's ethical verdict changes
Today PRG does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 96.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +65% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Lease to own payments hide a cyclical trap
Walk into any big box store and the lease to own option feels like easy credit for people who cannot get a card. PROG Holdings sits behind that flow, turning point of sale rentals into steady looking revenue. On paper the numbers look attractive, forward earnings at 8.7 times, an 18 percent return on equity and a 29 percent gap to our own fair value. Yet the opportunity rating stays at none because rental and leasing businesses are classic cyclical plays where low multiples often mark peak earnings rather than bargains.
Revenue is growing 11 percent and the ethical screen clears, but a 6 percent profit margin and an unknown moat leave little room for error when consumer spending slows. Analyst targets sit only modestly above the current price, which suggests the market already sees the limits of this model. The low multiple is therefore a warning sign, not an invitation.
Risk sits in the cyclical exposure and thin margins that can compress quickly in a downturn. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PRG trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Markdown$31.83+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $46. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markdown$31.83+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $46. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markdown$31.83+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $46. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$31.83+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $46. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markdown$31.83+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $46. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markdown$31.83+6.7%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 6.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $46. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markdown$29.82+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $46. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markdown$29.82+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 16% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $46. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-18Markdown$29.82-16.0%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 16.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $46.
2026-10-02Markdown$35.48-10.5%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 10.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 22%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $46.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
