Shopify Inc., a commerce technology company, provides tools to start, scale, market, and run a business of various sizes in Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.31, read 2026-11-05
Ethical passes the values gate
Price153.03 USD
Fair value122.06
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Accumulation148.26+3.2% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation with results news in the headlines
2026-10-02Read Markup148.26+3.2% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Markup first Markup read since August
2026-09-05Read Markdown149.80+2.2% to today Markup gives way to Markdown after a 38% rise in 9 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup108.24+41.4% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Shopify Inc holds its Markdown at $153.03. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 22 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 22 days
Price at the screen
$153.03
Valuation
96.33 trailing · 57.81 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
2.66
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
1.24%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 1.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
6.42%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 6.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
12.87%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 12.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
2.86%
Below 5%
Only 2.9% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Shopify clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its debt is near-nil, and interest is about 3% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today SHOP passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades above our $122.06 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 33.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 25.4% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 49 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +18% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $122.06, with a range of $108.00 to $140.37, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it gives us pause
At 57.8x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. It trades 25% above our $122.06 fair value, so you would be buying at a premium, not a discount. The narrow moat is real, but quality alone does not make an expensive price cheap.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SHOP trades on NASDAQ (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01Accumulation$157.49-7.9%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 7.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (45 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148.
2026-10-25Accumulation$171.06-4.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (45 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148. Since the last review it entered the Titan Ethical 500.
2026-10-18Accumulation$178.14+20.2%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 20.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (45 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (45 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148.
2026-10-02Markup · changed$148.26-1.0%Entry 12
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (45 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148.
2026-09-05Markdown · changed$149.80+31.7%Entry 11
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 31.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (45 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148.
2026-08-05Markup$113.75+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (45 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-04Markup$113.75+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (45 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-03Markup$113.75+0.0%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (45 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-02Markup$113.75+0.0%Entry 7
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (45 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
