An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Automatic Data Processing, Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $250.09
Automatic Data Processing holds its Markup at $250.09.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-24
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 1 days
Price
$250.09
Valuation
23.35 trailing · 20.49 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 83.2
Beta
0.84
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads OVERVALUED — it trades above our $238.34 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 7.00% revenue growth.
Read at
$250.09
23.35 P/E · 20.49 fwd
Our fair value
$238.34
5% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$260.00
+4% to current
Target low $190.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $305.00
▲ current $250.09 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$250.09
you are here
Conservative
$171.00
-32%
Analyst avg
$260.00
+4%
Our fair value
$238.34
-5%
Analyst high
$305.00
+22%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Revenue growth
7.00%
Profit margin
20.12%
Debt to equity
69.26
Analyst consensus
Hold · 15 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 17.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 8.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 13.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 1.6% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Payroll leader priced past its fair value
Every firm must pay its people on time, and ADP runs the quiet systems that make that happen across millions of workers. The business stands out for a strong moat, 71 percent return on equity and 20 percent profit margins, yet the shares trade 9 percent above fair value on a 20.9 times forward multiple with revenue growth at just 7 percent.
Analyst consensus sits at hold with a median target below the current price, which matches our reading that the market has paid up for quality that is already well known. The ethical screen clears without issue, so the verdict rests on valuation alone.
High returns draw a premium, but stretching the multiple leaves little margin if growth eases or rates remain sticky. This is a solid operator at the wrong price.
Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
ADP trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $246. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis. Entered 2026-07-28 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-28Markup$250.09+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $246. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Markup$250.09+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $246. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Markup$250.09+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $246. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Markup$250.09-2.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $246. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Markup$255.27+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $246. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Markup$255.27+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $246. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Markup$255.27+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $246. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Markup$255.27+10.1%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 10.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $246.
2026-07-18Markup$231.95+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $246.
2026-07-16Markup$231.95+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 25%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 9%. The street (15 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $246.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.