HUTCHMED (China) Limited, together with its subsidiaries, discovers, develops, and commercializes targeted therapeutics and immunotherapies to treat cancer and immunological diseases in Hong Kong, the United States, and…
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
14.37 USD
Price as of 21 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quoteLast reviewed 5 days ago
Screened 2026-10-21 · the tape above runs as of 04:14 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price14.37 USD at the 21 Oct 2026 close
Ethical screenDoes not pass
OptionsOpen interest leans to puts (put/call 1.34)
Last reviewed21 Oct 2026 (5 days ago)
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 14.37 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 12.10, over the last year.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.34, read 2026-10-25
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price14.37 USD
Fair value12.10
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-14Read Accumulation14.10+1.9% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation first Accumulation read since August
2026-10-02Read Markup14.48-0.8% to today Accumulation gives way to Markup after a 17% rise in 5 weeks
2026-08-31Read Accumulation12.42+15.7% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 13% rise in 9 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markdown10.96+31.1% to today First review on file: Markdown with results news in the headlines
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
HUTCHMED (China) Limited holds its Accumulation at $14.37. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 13 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-21
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 13 days
Price at the screen
$14.37
Valuation
143.70 trailing · 55.44 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.36
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Interest-bearing securities
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
5.58%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 5.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
73.92%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 73.9% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
11.30%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 11.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
9.09%
Below 5%
9.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
HUTCHMED (China)'s business is fine, but its cash and interest-bearing securities are about 74% of its assets, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-25. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today HCM does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 15.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 13 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +29% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cancer drug maker shrinks while priced for growth
A Hong Kong biotech firm develops targeted cancer therapies that reach patients across Asia and the US, yet its revenue has already fallen 16 percent. At a forward multiple of 29.8 times, the shares sit only 10 percent below our fair value of 11.96, leaving almost no margin of safety despite an 83 percent profit margin and 45 percent return on equity.
We therefore pass. The combination of negative top-line growth and a valuation that assumes future expansion does not meet our threshold for an opportunity, even though the business clears our ethical screen.
High analyst targets of 21 dollars ignore the revenue contraction and leave investors exposed if growth fails to reappear. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Hong Kong and to currency swings; as a drug manufacturers - specialty & generic name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HCM trades on Nasdaq (the company is based in Hong Kong). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-21Accumulation$13.50-4.3%Entry 8
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 4.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $23.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $23.
2026-10-02Markup · changed$14.48+16.6%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 16.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $23.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 14.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $23.
2026-08-01Markdown$10.84-1.1%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $23.
2026-07-18Markdown$10.96+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are down 35%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (15 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $23.
2026-07-03Markdown$10.96+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$10.96Entry 1
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
