An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Cadence Design Systems, Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $326.24
Cadence Design Systems holds its Distribution at $326.24.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-24
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 266 days
Price
$326.24
Valuation
75.87 trailing · 34.69 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 76.6
Beta
1.15
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads OVERVALUED — it trades above our $322.24 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 18.70% revenue growth.
Read at
$326.24
75.87 P/E · 34.69 fwd
Our fair value
$322.24
1% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$400.00
+23% to current
Target low $275.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $470.00
▲ current $326.24 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$326.24
you are here
Conservative
$247.50
-24%
Analyst avg
$400.00
+23%
Our fair value
$322.24
-1%
Analyst high
$470.00
+44%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
18.70%
Profit margin
21.18%
Debt to equity
46.99
Analyst consensus
Strong Buy · 26 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 25.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.7% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 34.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 1.9% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Premium chip tools trade above fair value
Engineers building the next wave of AI chips depend on Cadence software every day to verify designs before they reach silicon. The business shows real strength, with 19% revenue growth, 21% profit margins and a strong moat that keeps competitors at bay, yet the shares sit 2% above our fair value at a forward multiple of 35 times.
We pass because the price already bakes in the strong buy ratings from 26 analysts and their 400 dollar median target. Growth and returns on equity look solid, but paying a premium leaves investors exposed if growth slows even modestly or if broader tech spending pulls back.
Currency moves and customer concentration in semiconductors add further volatility on top of the stretched valuation. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
CDNS trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (26 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $380. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis. Entered 2026-07-27 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-27Distribution$326.24+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (26 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $380. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Distribution$326.24+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (26 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $380. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (26 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $380. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Accumulation$330.11+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (26 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $380. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Accumulation$330.11+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (26 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $380. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Accumulation$330.11+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (26 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $380. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Accumulation$330.11+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (26 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $380. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Accumulation$330.11-12.2%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 12.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (26 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $380. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Accumulation$376.19+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 26%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (26 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $380.
2026-07-03Accumulation$376.19+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
