Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-11
Options put/call open interest 1.22, read 2026-11-01
Ethical passes the values gate
Price250.23 USD
Fair value325.62
Ethical score80.6/100
RatingOPPORTUNITY
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-19Read Markup251.67-0.6% to today Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since September
2026-09-10Read Distribution257.26-2.7% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution
2026-07-02Read Markup251.44-0.5% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Adobe Inc. holds its Markup at $250.23. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 187 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-30
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 187 days
Price at the screen
$250.23
Valuation
13.85 trailing · 9.02 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 80.6
Beta
1.42
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
22.54%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 22.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
3.95%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 3.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
26.36%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 26.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.11%
Below 5%
Only 1.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Adobe clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 23%, inside the ~33% line, and interest is about 1% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-31. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when ADBE's ethical verdict changes
Today ADBE passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads OPPORTUNITY: it trades at roughly a 30% discount to our $325.62 fair value, strong competitive moat, 12.90% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-30 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 30.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $325.62, with a range of $325.62 to $500.46, dated to the 2026-10-30 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
The value the crowd left behind
The market decided Adobe was an AI casualty — that a wave of generative image tools would eat Photoshop's lunch — and it sold the stock down to a level that makes little sense for a business this good. Adobe still owns the creative-software standard the design world runs on, from Photoshop to Acrobat to the enterprise marketing stack, and it is building its own AI, Firefly, directly into those tools rather than watching from the sidelines.
Why it stands out. This is a wide-moat franchise still growing double digits, and it trades at under nine times forward earnings — the multiple you'd put on a fading industrial, not the backbone of the creative economy. Our fair value sits around $310 against a price near $237, roughly 30% of upside even on our conservative, consensus-anchored read — and on the list of stocks the biggest finance channels are all buying, it is quietly one of the best values of the lot. It clears our ethical screen cleanly.
The honest risk. The disruption fear is not nothing — if generative tools genuinely erode Adobe's pricing power over time, a cheap multiple can stay cheap. But at nine times earnings, an enormous amount of that pessimism is already in the price; you are being paid well to take the other side. Risk around 50%, almost all of it the AI-competition question. Analysis, not advice.
ADBE trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-26Markup$251.67+0.0%Entry 17
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (32 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $272. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-19Markup · changed$251.67+3.9%Entry 16
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (32 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $272. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-12Distribution$242.27+2.9%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (32 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $275. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-02Distribution$235.47-8.5%Entry 14
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 8.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (32 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $275. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (34 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $277. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-09Markup$257.26-5.5%Entry 12
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 5.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (34 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $277. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-08Markup$272.22+0.0%Entry 11
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (34 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $277. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-06Markup$272.22+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (34 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $275. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-05Markup$272.22+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (34 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $275. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-09-04Markup$272.22+0.0%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 44%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (34 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $275. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
