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The Screen · Basic Materials · Other Precious Metals & Mining
Sibanye Stillwater Limited
SBSW · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $7.1B
Sibanye Stillwater Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a precious metals mining company in South Africa, the United States, Europe, and Australia.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 12.22, read 2026-11-03
Ethical passes the values gate
Price8.60 USD
Fair valueUnder review
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown10.01-14.1% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 20% slide in 3 weeks
2026-09-12Read Markup12.54-31.4% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 27% rise in 4 weeks
2026-08-12Read Distribution9.89-13.0% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution
2026-07-02Read Markup9.86-12.8% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Sibanye Stillwater Limited holds its Markdown at $8.60. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 21 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-03
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 21 days
Price at the screen
$8.60
Valuation
8.21 trailing · 2.83 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.92
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
29.32%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 29.3% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
1.64%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
14.70%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 14.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.21%
Below 5%
Only 1.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Sibanye Stillwater clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 29%, inside the ~33% line, and interest is about 1% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today SBSW passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Fair value under review. Our model's value is 1.77x the price, above our 1.35x limit. We show no fair value, margin of safety or value read built on it until the review clears.
Where our models see it going: no fair-value estimate yet, range not available, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cheap mining multiple hides a classic trap
Picture a miner pulling platinum and gold out of the ground in South Africa. When metal prices spike the cash flows look huge, yet the same operation can swing to losses the moment prices turn. Sibanye shows exactly that pattern right now, with revenue up 32 percent but margins at minus 4 percent and returns on equity at minus 10 percent. The forward multiple of 2.1 times therefore reads as a warning rather than a bargain in a cyclical business.
We pass despite the ethical screen clearing and a 35 percent gap to our fair value. Low multiples in precious-metals mining often mark peak earnings, not undervaluation, and the negative profitability metrics confirm the cycle is already rolling over. Analyst targets at 13 dollars ignore that structural reality.
Currency swings, labour unrest and policy risk in South Africa add further volatility that a simple multiple cannot capture. The low price reflects those headwinds more than any overlooked opportunity. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to South Africa and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SBSW trades on the NYSE (the company is based in South Africa). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Markdown$8.60-12.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 12.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-10-28Markdown$9.77+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-10-21Markdown$9.77-2.3%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-10-14Markdown$10.00-0.1%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$10.01-20.2%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 20.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-09-12Markup · changed$12.54+26.8%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 26.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-08-12Distribution · changed$9.89+0.3%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-07-18Markup$9.86+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-07-03Markup$9.86+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$9.86Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
