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The Screen · Basic Materials · Other Precious Metals & Mining
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.
TFPM · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $7.0B
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., a precious metals streaming and royalty company, engages in acquiring and managing precious metals, streams, royalties, and other mineral interests in Australia, Canada, Colombia, Cote…
Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 19:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markup label.
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. holds its Markup at $33.78. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 9 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 9 days
Price at the screen
$33.78
Valuation
16.89 trailing · 21.83 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.34
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
0.07%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.82%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
4.39%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 4.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.20%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 22.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +17% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Royalties in gold hide a classic trap
Picture a royalty collector who takes a cut every time gold changes hands. The model looks clean until the metal price cycle turns and volumes dry up overnight. Triple Flag shows eye watering 79% revenue growth and 69% profit margins, yet trades above our fair value with a forward multiple of 19.5 times and no margin of safety. The ethical screen clears, but the cyclical label means those headline numbers are peak earnings dressed up as steady income.
We pass because the business sits squarely in a sector where low multiples often signal the top of the cycle rather than a bargain. ROE of 16% is respectable on paper, yet it rests on commodity prices that have already run hard. Analyst targets sit much higher, but history shows those forecasts rarely survive the next downturn in precious metals.
Metal price swings remain the dominant risk, amplified by exposure across eight different countries where permitting, taxes and local politics can shift quickly. When volumes fall the high margins compress fast and the apparent stability disappears. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TFPM trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-14Markup · changed$33.78+5.2%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $42.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 10.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $42.
2026-07-18Distribution$29.16+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 13%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 30%. The street (4 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $42.
2026-07-03Distribution$29.16+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$29.16Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
