An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Perpetua Resources Corp., a development-stage company, engages in the acquisition of mining properties in the United States.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $16.90
Perpetua Resources Corp. holds its Distribution at $16.90.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · screen not yet scored
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 8 days
Price
$16.90
Valuation
N/A trailing · -169.00 forward price to earnings
Values screen
Not scored· score 70.0
Beta
0.69
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$16.90
N/A P/E · -169.00 fwd
Our fair value
$22.82
35% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$40.00
+137% to current
Target low $32.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $43.50
▲ current $16.90 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$16.90
you are here
Conservative
$22.82
+35%
Analyst avg
$40.00
+137%
Our fair value
$22.82
+35%
Analyst high
$43.50
+157%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Profit margin
0.00%
Debt to equity
0.44
Analyst consensus
Strong Buy · 5 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purity of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Mining dreams hit a wall of red ink
Imagine a prospector betting the farm on one remote gold and antimony site while the company still burns cash every quarter. Perpetua Resources sits at that exact stage, a pure development play with zero profit margin, negative return on equity and a forward multiple that is meaningless because earnings are absent. The market's strong buy chorus and higher price targets ignore the fact that this remains a pre-revenue bet in a sector where timing is everything and most projects never reach production.
We pass without hesitation. The ethical screen returns insufficient data, a hard stop on its own, and the cyclical nature of precious metals adds the classic value-trap warning: any apparent discount can simply reflect peak-cycle optimism that vanishes when commodity prices turn. Negative earnings and an unknown moat leave no margin for the delays, permitting fights and capital raises that always seem to appear in these stories.
Development-stage miners carry execution risk that dwarfs any headline valuation gap, especially when basic financial ratios are missing. Currency swings, regulatory setbacks and long lead times to first pour can erase paper gains quickly. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
PPTA trades on Nasdaq. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $39. Entered 2026-07-18 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Distribution$24.09+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $39.
2026-07-03Distribution$24.09+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$24.09Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$31.54
-32.4%
·
$676
-32.4%
2 months
$29.94
-28.8%
·
$712
-28.8%
3 months
$31.31
-31.9%
·
$681
-31.9%
6 months
$29.15
-26.9%
·
$731
-26.9%
1 year
$16.53
+29.0%
·
$1,290
+29.0%
2 years
$6.79
+214.0%
·
$3,140
+214.0%
3 years
$4.51
+372.7%
·
$4,727
+372.7%
5 years
$8.61
+147.6%
·
$2,476
+147.6%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever PPTA does next, these words stay.
Perpetua Resources Corp. · PPTA · Distribution · $16.90
Recorded 2026-07-19 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
