Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price103.51 USD
Fair value76.88
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Accumulation103.51+0.0% to today ✓
2026-09-12Read Markdown103.15+0.3% to today
2026-08-12Read Markup103.26+0.2% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markdown71.81+44.1% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Safety Insurance Group, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $103.51. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 314 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-24
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 314 days
Price at the screen
$103.51
Valuation
22.26 trailing · 16.56 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.18
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Safety Insurance Group, does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-24 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 25.7% above the base estimate.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-24 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Every Boston policy hits the ethical wall first
Drivers in Massachusetts file claims for fender benders and storm damage without ever seeing the capital behind the payouts. Safety Insurance supplies those policies across auto and home cover in one state only. The business ticks along at low single-digit revenue growth and single-digit returns on equity, yet none of that detail reaches our desk.
We pass outright. The ethical screen rejects the entire insurance sector on first review, so price, valuation and growth metrics never come into play. A 11.9 times forward multiple and a 4 percent margin of safety do not override that hard stop.
Low returns and limited scale already mark the name as ordinary rather than compelling, but the screen alone settles the matter. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SAFT trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 0.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%.
2026-09-12Markdown · changed$103.15-0.1%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%.
2026-08-12Markup · changed$103.26+43.8%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 43.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%.
2026-07-18Markdown$71.81+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 5%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 10%.
2026-07-03Markdown$71.81+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$71.81Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
