Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-08-20
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price45.88 USD
Fair value59.00
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown45.88+0.0% to today
2026-09-01Read Distribution50.39-9.0% to today ✓
2026-08-01Read Markup52.61-12.8% to today
2026-07-02Read Accumulation48.86-6.1% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Horace Mann Educators Corporation holds its Markdown at $45.88. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 388 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-24
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 388 days
Price at the screen
$45.88
Valuation
10.72 trailing · 8.66 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.09
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited keyword in sector/industry: insurance
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Horace Mann Educators does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-24 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 28.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 2 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +23% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-24 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Insurance Name Trips Ethical Screen at Flat Price
Picture a teacher in Illinois renewing car cover or a retiree in Texas drawing down a life policy. The premiums flow through Horace Mann's three segments, yet the holding company fails our ethical screen outright because it sits inside insurance. That single filter overrides everything else on the table.
Numbers show a steady but unexciting operation. Revenue edges up 3 percent, margins sit at 10 percent and return on equity reaches 12 percent. Forward earnings trade at 10.4 times with almost no margin of safety between the current price and stated fair value. Two analysts call it a buy, yet their median target sits level with the share price.
Risk sits in the ethical block first, then in low growth and typical insurance cycle exposure that can turn a cheap multiple into a trap when claims rise. We pass for the screen reason alone.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HMN trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$45.88-9.0%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 9.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $52.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $52.
2026-08-01Markup · changed$52.61+7.7%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $52.
2026-07-18Accumulation$48.86+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $52.
2026-07-03Accumulation$48.86+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$48.86Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
