Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-08-27
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price642.61 USD
Fair value596.41
Ethical score82.8/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-30Read Distribution625.84+2.7% to today
2026-07-03Read Markup695.11-7.6% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Quanta Services holds its Distribution at $642.61. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 17 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 17 days
Price at the screen
$642.61
Valuation
73.53 trailing · 32.72 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 82.8
Beta
1.20
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
25.75%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 25.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
29.23%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 29.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.06%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $596.41 fair value estimate, weak competitive moat, 41.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 7.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 28 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +24% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Power Grid Builder Trades Well Above Fair Value
Every time a storm knocks out lines or a city adds EV chargers, crews from Quanta Services turn up to rebuild the network. The firm has grown revenue 26 percent lately, yet it trades at a forward multiple of 38 times earnings with our fair value sitting 11 percent below the current price. That gap alone pushes the name into avoid territory despite an ethical screen that clears cleanly.
The business earns a weak moat, thin 4 percent profit margins and a modest 14 percent return on equity. Analyst targets sit much higher, but the valuation already prices in flawless execution on every utility contract for years ahead. Cyclical exposure to spending cycles only adds to the stretch.
Risk sits mainly in the premium multiple and limited pricing power against larger rivals. Even solid project wins may not justify the entry point when growth normalises. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PWR trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-30Distribution$662.47+5.9%Entry 11
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 5.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 50% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 88%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $760.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 50% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 88%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $760. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-28Markup$625.84+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 50% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 88%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $760. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Markup$625.84+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 50% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 88%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $760. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Markup$625.84+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 50% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 88%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $760. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Markup$625.84-0.4%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 50% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 88%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $760. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Markup$628.53+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 50% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 88%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $760. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-23Markup$628.53-9.6%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 9.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 50% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 88%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $760. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$695.11+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 50% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 88%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 38%. The street (25 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $760.
2026-07-03Markup$695.11+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
