FIX
Comfort Systems USA
Industrials · Construction & Engineering · US
$1,952.37
Close 2025-12-31
✗ ETHICAL FAIL

MODERATE MOAT
HIGH
Data Confidence: 100%
Full financial profile available
Market Cap
$68.7B
Trailing P/E
56.50
Forward P/E
37.30
Rev Growth
+1.0%
Profit Margin
12.1%
ROE
53.3%
Analyst Target
$1,991.20
Recommendation
STRONG BUY
About Comfort Systems USA

Comfort Systems USA, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides mechanical and electrical installation, renovation, maintenance, repair, and replacement services for the mechanical and electrical services industry in the United States. The company operates through two segments: Mechanical and Electrical. It offers heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems, as well as plumbing, electrical, piping and controls, off-site construction, monitoring, and fire protection. The company is also involved in the design, engineering, integration, installation, and start-up of mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) and related systems in new buildings; and renovation, expansion, maintenance, monitoring, repair, and replacement of systems in existing buildings. In addition, it provides remote monitoring of power usage, temperature, pressure, humidity and air flow for MEP and other building systems. The company serves building owners and developers, general contractors, architects, consulting engineers, and property managers in the commercial, industrial, and institutional markets. Comfort Systems USA, Inc. was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Opportunity Summary
Trading at $1952, 86% above fair value of $1048. Moderate competitive position. Fails ethical screen (Accounts receivable). Ranks better than 16% of screened stocks.
Ethical Screen
Business ActivityPASS
Debt Ratio (0.08%)PASS
Cash Ratio (0.00%)PASS
Receivables Ratio (0.55%)FAIL
Revenue Ratio (0.00%)PASS
OverallFAIL
Score Ethical: 10.0
Score Valuation: 30.5
Score Quality: 57.0
Score Combined: 34.4
Fair Value Est: $1,048.00 · Margin of Safety: -46.3% · Tier: AVOID

Full Analysis

Opportunity scores, earnings history, insider transactions, institutional holders, analyst consensus, and more.

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Opportunity Scores
Valuation21.6
Quality47.5
Cash Flow20.0
Moat50.0
Balance Sheet89.1
Debt Purity77.3
Liquid Purity100.0
Rev Purity95.2
Compliance89.2
Tier: WATCH · Score: 38.1 · Rank: #4450
Earnings History (Last 8 Quarters)
DateEPS Est.Reported EPSSurprise %
2026-07-2310.38Pending--
2026-04-236.8110.51+54.4%
2026-02-196.759.37+38.7%
2025-10-236.238.25+32.4%
2025-07-244.846.53+35.0%
2025-04-243.714.75+28.1%
2025-02-203.674.08+11.1%
2024-10-243.994.09+2.4%
Quarterly Financials
PeriodRevenueNet IncomeEBITDAGross ProfitOp. IncomeEPS
2026-03-31$2.9B$370.4M$523.3M$754.4M$485.4M10.52
2025-12-31$2.6B$330.8M$456.9M$674.7M$426.4M
2025-09-30$2.5B$291.6M$409.0M$607.9M$378.3M8.26
2025-06-30$2.2B$230.8M$332.7M$509.9M$299.4M6.54
2025-03-31$1.8B$169.3M$243.8M$403.4M$208.5M4.77
2024-12-314.10
Insider Transactions
DateNameRoleSharesValue
2026-05-18WALLIS-LAGE CINDY LDirector105--
2026-05-18HARDY RHOMAN JDirector105--
2026-05-18BULLS HERMAN EDirector105--
2026-05-18ANDERSON DARCY GDirector105--
2026-05-18MYERS FRANKLINDirector105--
2026-05-18SANDBROOK WILLIAM JDirector105--
2026-05-18MERCADO PABLO GDirector105--
2026-05-18SKIDMORE CONSTANCE ELLENDirector105--
2026-05-18KAPOOR GAURAVDirector105--
2026-05-11SHAEFF JULIE SOfficer1,123$2.2M
Top Institutional Holders
HolderSharesValue% Held
Blackrock Inc.3.5M$6.4B0.1%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC2.3M$4.2B0.1%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC1.9M$3.4B0.1%
State Street Corporation1.5M$2.7B0.0%
FMR, LLC1.4M$2.7B0.0%
Geode Capital Management, LLC1.2M$2.3B0.0%
AQR Capital Management, LLC1.1M$2.0B0.0%
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO889.9K$1.6B0.0%
Capital World Investors865.8K$1.6B0.0%
Westfield Capital Management Co LP620.9K$1.1B0.0%
Analyst Recommendations
2 Months Ago
6
7 analysts
Last Month
6
2
8 analysts
Current
6
7 analysts
Strong Buy Buy Hold Sell Strong Sell
Additional Fundamentals
Enterprise Value
$66.8B
Price/Book
99.61
Beta
1.705
Analysts
5
Total Revenue (TTM)
$10.1B
Total Debt
$303.9M
Earnings Growth
+38.8%
Dividend Yield
13.0%
Rec. Mean
1.29
Short Ratio
1.88
Short % Float
0.0%
Employees
22,700

Elite Intelligence

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Trade Consideration
The Opportunity
Score 34.4 (P28 — top 71.8% of scored tickers). Moderate Moat. Ethical FAIL. 5 analysts at Strong Buy.
Price: $1,952.37 | Target: $1,991.20 (+2%) | Fair Value: $1,048.00 (+-46%)
Score
34
Moat
MODERATE
Conviction
Standard
Upside
+2%
The Fundamentals
Revenue Growth+1.0%
Profit Margin0.0%
ROE53.3%
Forward P/E37.3
Market Cap$68.7B
Earnings Track Record
DateEstimateReportedSurprise
2026-07-23$10.38Pending
2026-04-23$6.81$10.51+54.4%
2026-02-19$6.75$9.37+38.7%
2025-10-23$6.23$8.25+32.4%
2025-07-24$4.84$6.53+35.0%
2025-04-24$3.71$4.75+28.1%
Position Sizing Scenarios
Stop: $1,659.51 (-15%) | Entry: $1,952.37
SharesCostProfit to TargetR:R
To Consensus ($1,991.20, 5 analysts)
10$19,523.70+$388.30 (2%)0.1R
50$97,618.50+$1,941.50 (2%)0.1R
100$195,237.00+$3,883.00 (2%)0.1R
To Fair Value ($1,048.00)
10$19,523.70+$-9,043.70 (-46%)-3.1R
50$97,618.50+$-45,218.50 (-46%)-3.1R
100$195,237.00+$-90,437.00 (-46%)-3.1R
Risk Factors
  • High beta (1.71) — amplifies market moves by 1.71x
  • Valuation stretched on forward earnings
The Verdict
Comfort Systems USA holds a moderate competitive moat.
Quantitative Grade

A single score combining all analytical layers below. A is strongest, D is weakest.

A
Quant Score
78.8
Risk Grade
Layers
8
Quality: HIGH_SORTINO,CONSISTENT_BEATER,STRONG_EARNINGS_DRIFT
Risk Profile

How much could this ticker lose on a bad day? These metrics measure worst-case scenarios from historical data.

VaR 95%
-5.6%
worst expected daily loss, 19 in 20 days
CVaR 95%
-8.5%
avg loss on the worst 5% of days
Annual Volatility
Sortino Ratio
1.86
above 1.0 is good
Max Drawdown
-46.0%
Worst Day
Forward Outlook

Based on 10,000 simulated price paths, here is the probability of where this ticker could be in 30, 60, and 90 days.

30d Prob Up
90d Prob Up
Median Return 30d
Liquidity Score
95
Liquidity Grade
HIGHLY LIQUID
Trend & Momentum

What direction is this ticker actually moving, filtered through noise? Is it speeding up or slowing down?

Kalman Trend
Trend Strength
Momentum Signal
HMM Regime
RSI Signal
Technical Signals

Classic chart signals that institutional traders monitor. Golden Cross is bullish, Death Cross is bearish.

MA Crossover
ABOVE_200
Bollinger Position
LOWER_HALF
Beta
Relative Volume
1.1x
Short Interest
Financial Health

Is this company financially sound? The Z-Score measures bankruptcy risk. The F-Score measures fundamental strength.

Altman Z-Score
below 1.81 = distress zone
Piotroski F-Score
Earnings Beat Rate
100.0%
Earnings Consistency
Correlations

These tickers tend to move together (positive) or in opposite directions (negative). Useful for portfolio diversification.

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Inverse Correlated
TickerCorrelation
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GIS-0.253
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Seasonality

Does this ticker have consistent patterns on certain days or months? Historical tendencies, not guarantees.

Best Day
Wednesday
Worst Day
Thursday
Best Month
Apr
Worst Month
Dec
Fri-Mon Effect
0.05622958127958094
Earnings Drift

After this company beats earnings, does the price keep going up? Drift tracks post-earnings momentum.

Avg Drift After Beat
+11.1%
Beat Drift Positive %
87.5%
Consistency
Momentum Rankings

How does this ticker's recent performance compare to the entire universe? Ranked across 1, 3, 6, and 12-month returns.

1M Return
+9.2%
3M Return
+28.4%
6M Return
+115.2%
12M Return
+308.4%
Momentum Rank
#194
Momentum Signal
STRONG_UP

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