The Screen · Industrials · Engineering & Construction
Comfort Systems USA
FIX · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $58.0B · 22,700 employees
Comfort Systems USA, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides mechanical and electrical installation, renovation, maintenance, repair, and replacement services for the mechanical and electrical services industry in…
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
1,648.47 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-08
Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Comfort Systems USA holds its Distribution at $1,648.47. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 42 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 42 days
Price at the screen
$1,648.47
Valuation
40.62 trailing · 27.39 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.68
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Accounts receivable
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
7.50%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 7.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
55.27%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 55.3% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
0.24%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 2% discount to our $1,684.53 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 1.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 2.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +31% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as roughly fairly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Receivables Trouble Clouds This Contractor's Appeal
Every time a contractor finishes a job the cash still has to arrive from the client, and stretched receivables are the first sign the books are under pressure. Comfort Systems USA installs the mechanical and electrical systems that keep buildings running, yet the shares sit 6 percent above our fair value at a 30.9 times forward multiple while revenue edges up just 1 percent a year. We pass on the ethical screen failure and the rich price despite a 53 percent ROE and moderate moat.
High returns on equity and 12 percent profit margins look attractive on the surface, but they sit alongside an ethical flag that cannot be ignored. Analyst targets may point higher, yet the combination of slow growth and valuation leaves little room for error.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
FIX trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 63% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 253%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $1991.
2026-07-23Accumulation$1,674.06+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 63% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 253%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $1991. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Accumulation$1,674.06+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 63% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 253%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $1991. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Accumulation$1,674.06+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 63% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 253%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $1991. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Accumulation$1,674.06+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 63% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 253%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $1991. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-19Accumulation$1,674.06-9.2%Entry 6
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 9.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 63% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 253%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $1991. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Accumulation$1,843.94+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 63% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 253%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $1991. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-17Accumulation$1,843.94+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 63% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 253%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $1991. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-16Accumulation$1,843.94+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 63% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 253%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. The street (5 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $1991. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03Accumulation$1,843.94+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
