Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-08-25
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price757.71 USD
Fair value890.99
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-28Read Markup787.39-3.8% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution817.44-7.3% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Emcor holds its Distribution at $757.71. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 15 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-21
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 15 days
Price at the screen
$757.71
Valuation
23.61 trailing · 20.62 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.13
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Accounts receivable
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
5.04%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 5.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
57.61%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 57.6% of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
0.12%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 18% discount to our $890.99 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 19.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-21 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 17.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +38% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-21 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Builder trips on our ethics test
Picture the miles of cabling and pipework inside every new hospital or data centre. Emcor handles the heavy lifting on those jobs across the US and UK. The business still posts 20% revenue growth, 8% margins and 39% ROE, yet we pass.
Valuation at 22.7 times forward earnings leaves little room for error even with a narrow moat and a 10% margin of safety to our $816 fair value. The ethical screen is the real blocker, failing on accounts receivable practices that we will not overlook.
Consensus targets sit higher at $975, but the ethical red flag and stretched multiple keep us away regardless of the construction cycle. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
EME trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-28Markup · changed$787.39+5.8%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $984.
2026-07-27Distribution$744.16-9.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 9.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $984.
2026-07-18Distribution$817.44+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 22% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 68%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $984.
2026-07-03Distribution$817.44+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$817.44Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.