Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 11:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
PTC Inc. holds its Distribution at $128.89. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 12 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 12 days
Price at the screen
$128.89
Valuation
12.50 trailing · 14.47 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 87.4
Beta
1.00
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
20.70%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 20.7% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
17.92%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 17.9% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.12%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OPPORTUNITY: it trades above our $123.84 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 3.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 20 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +30% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
PLM software that keeps global factories running
Picture an engineer in Stuttgart updating a turbine design while a supplier in Pune sees the change in real time. That is the daily reality PTC delivers through its Windchill platform. The business stands out because it combines 22 percent revenue growth, 42 percent profit margins and a 34 percent return on equity inside a strong moat that competitors struggle to breach. At 14.4 times forward earnings the shares trade well below our $188.81 fair value, leaving a 52 percent margin of safety.
Twenty analysts carry a buy rating with a median target of $178, yet the market still prices PTC like a standard software name rather than a mission-critical system with sticky, high-switching-cost customers across the Americas, Europe and Asia Pacific.
Risk sits mainly in execution and competition. Any slowdown in industrial capex or a determined push by larger cloud vendors could compress growth and margins faster than the current multiple suggests. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
PTC trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 12.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $173.
2026-08-09Markup$147.66+7.8%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $180.
2026-07-18Markup$137.00+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $180.
2026-07-03Markup$137.00+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$137.00Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
