Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 174.67, read 2026-10-29
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price724.19 USD
Fair value1,064.10
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 2 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-28Read Markup771.19-6.1% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after an 8% slide in 4 weeks
2026-10-02Read Distribution840.89-13.9% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 26% slide in 13 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markup1,137.33-36.3% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Fair Isaac holds its Markup at $724.19. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-02
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$724.19
Valuation
20.59 trailing · 15.06 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.34
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
164.60%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 164.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
2.92%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 2.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
35.51%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 35.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Fair Isaac's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 165% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-02. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today FICO does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 2 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 33% discount to our $1,064.10 fair value, 25.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-02 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 31.9% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $1,064.10, with a range of $921.14 to $1,422.46, dated to the 2026-11-02 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Credit score giant stumbles on debt screen
Every bank loan or credit card approval runs through FICO scores somewhere in the chain. The business posts 39 percent revenue growth and 34 percent profit margins, yet the ethical screen flags a debt ratio breach and we rate the name avoid.
The forward multiple sits at 23 times earnings with a 17 percent margin of safety to our fair value. That combination still fails the debt test, so we pass regardless of analyst targets clustered near 1522.
High margins can mask leverage that later bites when rates stay elevated. The unknown moat adds another layer of uncertainty we prefer to skip.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
FICO trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03Markup$711.23+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1532. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Markup$711.23+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1532. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Markup$711.23+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1532. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Markup$711.23-12.8%Entry 12
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 12.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1532. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Markup$815.31+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1532. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-29Markup$815.31+5.7%Entry 10
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1532. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markup · changed$771.19+0.0%Entry 9
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1532. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Distribution$771.19+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1532.
2026-10-17Distribution$771.19-8.3%Entry 7
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 8.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1532.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 28.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are down 31%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 23%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $1532.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
